Wednesday, October 31, 2012

The “Make Believe” NYSE Opening....... IMPORTANT INFO

The "Make Believe" NYSE Opening

By Barry Ritholtz

Markets are set to open shortly, but I am wondering why.

I've spoken/email/Tweeted to a substantial number of traders and fund managers — very few people seem to be operating normally, regardless of where they live. Lots of quote issues, Bloomberg not running normally, connectivity problems. This is not remotely an ideal set of conditions for trading.

I was trying to figure out why the NYSE would open when not at full operating capacity, and I came up with three possibilities:

1. Competitive issues: 

The exchange want to demonstrate its still the market leader; they did not want to lose share or appear lacking in an emergency plan.

2.  Confidence: 

Much of equity investing depends on a series of ephemeral beliefs, some of which are more (and some less) justified. Part of this is confidence in the internal structures and institutions, which have failed repeatedly over he past decade. Hence, making a good show of things is part of that

3. Window Dressing: 

Its more than getting open for a last day of the month Window dressing — Mutual funds are closing out their year on October 31st.  I suspect they are desperate to get one last positive mark on the books before  the new year begins.




Of course there are so many legitimate reasons why the S&P has soared since the storm; 

Hurricane Sandy will cut both Q4 GDP and corporate profits (not to mention sales). 

Apple announced the termination of its two key executives on Monday afternoon.

Spanish housing permits collapsed by 37.2% in August from July.

Taiwan slashed its 2012 GDP forecast from 1.66% to 1.05%.

Greek retail sales plunged by 7.2% Y/Y and the Greek 2013 economic outlook was cut in the latest budget.

Japan just cut its economic outlook last night after its manufacturing PMI came at 46.9, the lowest since 2009.

European September unemployment rate rising to a new record of 11.6%, (Italy unemployment is now 10.8% up from 10.6% but it still has a way to go until it hits Spain's 25%).



STANDING THROUGH THE STORM...........The definition of devotion to duty

The definition of devotion to duty

"Just in case people forget, there are Amazing soldiers standing at the Tomb through this craziness. This a picture from this morning. (10-30-12)" Yes they are there 365 days and 24 hours a day.


How Ben Bernanke Is Destroying America

David Einhorn knocks it out of the park with his very first statement in a segment dedicated to one thing only: explaining how the Fed's policies are not only not helping the economy,they are now actively destroying this country.

"Sometimes you have to look at what is the base assumption. Because sometimes you have a groupthink around the base assumption and everybody agrees to the same thing and acts reflexively and doesn't really challenge what is going on. I think we have reached that point with the monetary policy. 

The assumption is that if you want the economy to improve, if you want more jobs, if you want more consumption, what we need is ever-easing monetary policy. My point is that if one jelly donut is a fine thing to have, 35 jelly donuts is not a fine thing to have, and it gets to a point where it's not a question of diminishing returns but it actually turns out to be a drag. I think we have passed the point where incremental easing of Federal policy actually acts as a headwind to the economy and is actually slowing down our recovery, and I am alarmed by the reflexive groupthink of the leaders which is if we want a stronger economy, we need lower rates, we need more QE and other such measures."   THEY WANT MORE QE BECAUSE THE MONEY FLOWS TO THEM AND THEIR FRIENDS, NOT BECAUSE IT IS A POLICY THAT IS GOOD FOR AMERICA!

And that, in a nutshell is it: 

Because in addition to explaining the same fundamental error in the Fed's logic (from an economic standpoint; we already showed what the "market" error is, namely that instead of forcing investors to buy risk assets as Bernanke's wealth effect prerogative demands, these same investors are merely frontrunning the Fed's purchases of bonds and MBS, in what is truly a risk free, if lower-returning trade, and is key reason why ever fewer equity market participants are left, leading to lower bank revenues, bank employee terminations, lower Federal and State tax refunds, and so on, in a closed loop) it also points out the social aspect. 

At one point in the interview, Einhorn observes that traders and economists now have diametrically opposing views on the effectiveness of QE (no need to explain whose view is what). The reason for this dichotomy is simple, if crucial: we are now at a point where the entire practice of new-classical economics - the bedrock thinking of all modern society - is at risk of being exposed for a sham "science" which is and has always been absolutely flawed. 

Because when one day the Fed fails to prop up the Fed, and fail it will, all the economists that encouraged the Fed to do what it does, without grasping the true implications of 'diminishing returns', will be forced to fall on their swords (hopefully metaphorically but who knows). And with that the end of the shaman cult of economics that shaped the modern world will finally end. 

But not before every single "economist" keen on perpetuating their job, their tenure, and their paycheck for as long as possible, backs the Chairman fully and unconditionally:anything less, any outright dissent within the economic cabal, would lead to a far faster unwind of the Fed's policy artifice even faster than it otherwise will fail.

Einhorn, who presents one of the most coherent explanations why QE, contrary to the Chairman's "best intentions" does nothing to stimulate the economy at the consumer level, and why it effectively serves as a hindrance to future growth:

"Lower rates drive up the cost of commodities: oil and food. And money that is spent on oil is sent out of the country to the Mideast and it doesn't help, and takes out income from people's pockets that could otherwise be spent on other goods.  DOES THIS SOUND LIKE THE FED IS INTERESTED IN HELPING AMERICA?

The second and this is by far the biggest thing that the Fed refuses to acknowledge, is that not being able to earn a safe return on savings, is causing people to hoard savings rather than consume. 

In other words if I know I am going to earn 3% in the bank I can spend that income and I can have visibility towards that, but if I know I'm going to earn zero in the bank, in order to figure out how much I need to save for retirement, I need to save a much bigger number. Which means I can't spend much now, I need to save more now, to build up those savings for retirement. AT THIS POINT IT IS DELUSIONAL TO BELIEVE THAT MOST BOOMERS WILL EVER HAVE A RETIREMENT UNLESS THEY HIT THE LOTTERY! 

If I am already retired and I am on fixed income, my income has now really gone down and I have to hoard money so I can spread it out thinner over a longer part of my life. So by denying individuals savings or interest on income on their savings, it is causing hoarding which is driving down consumption which is hurting the economy."  IT IS MY CONTENTION THAT OUR LEADERS ARE TRAITORS AND THAT THEY HAVE DONE MORE DAMAGE TO AMERICA THAN ANY FOREIGN ENEMY EVER HAS!

As a reminder, in America consumption, not the government (which despite incorrect claims to the contrary has never created even one penny of wealth), is responsible for 70% of annual GDP. 

Is it any wonder that the Fed's own policies, done solely to protect the financial system, and to enrich those whose wealth is already primarily in the stock market (the infamous "1%"), are the cause of the ongoing catastrophe that is the destruction of America's middle class, which day after day sinks lower and lower?  THEY ARE TRAITORS AND THEY ARE OUR PRIMARY ENEMY!

Also, in direct debunking of all those Magic Money Tree "economists" who say that government deficits are a great thing because the lead to higher savings, while maybe true on paper, Einhorn shows that the "expectations" component of behavior here is far more critical than what simplistic Econ 101 textbooks claim, especially the ones that were written long before anyone thought that the US would have a Zero Interest Rate Policy for at least 7 years (and likely more until the runaway inflation finally hits):

In terms of the savings, I don't think it's a zero sum, because it's a multiplier on the behavior. It's not just the income I am not receiving now. It is the income I don't expect to receive in the future as well. Now we are years years into ZIRP with a promise of at least three more, so that's seven years, and you are getting a change in behavior on a multiplied basis. BUT NOT THE CHANGE THE FED HOPES FOR OR WANTS.

Finally, and touching on the previous point of why theoretical economists' views differ so much from those who practically make a living by being right for a change, Einhorn is laconic: "It's very hard for economists with models, with very limited sample sets and empirical data to understand that we've gone far beyond the point of monetary policy diminishing returns.  ECONOMIST IS SIMPLY ANOTHER WORD FOR POLITICAL ASS KISSER......THEIR THEORIES ARE ON PAR WITH THOSE THAT STILL BELIEVE THE WORLD IS FLAT.

I think you wind up with a different view from people in the real world who aren't just trying to figure out what do the models say, but how do people actually behave.... We've opened up enormous tail risks of what happens if the Fed loses control, what happens if the Treasury loses control and these scare people and drive up risk premiums, and drive down P/E multiples and make companies defer long-term investments in the country because they are worried about significant tail risks these very aggressive policies are creating." And there you have it - someone please advise Paul Krugman and his cotterie of useless voodoo shamans whose only recommendation has always been more of the same. Pardon: much, much more.  STUPID IS AS STUPID DOES! AND THOSE THAT WE ELECT CONTINUE TO GIVE THE IGNORANT MASSES, WHO UNDERSTAND NOTHING ABOUT WHAT IS REALLY NEEDED, EXACTLY WHAT THEY WANT IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN THEIR POWER. THIS ENDS IN COLLAPSE NOT RECOVERY!

The Fed's solipsistic illogical methods are bankrupting America. 

It seems as if nothing will stop the money printing, and Chairman Bernanke in fact assures us that it will continue even after the economic recovery strengthens. Specifically, he says, "Even after the economy starts to recover more quickly, even after the unemployment rate begins to move down more decisively, we're not going to rush to begin to tighten policy." Apparently, anything less than a $40 billion per month subscription order for MBS is now considered 'tightening'. He's letting us know that what once looked like a purchasing spree of unimaginable proportions is now just the monthly budget.  A MAN THAT NO ONE ELECTED, IS DESTROYING AMERICAS FUTURE! 

Chairman Bernanke concedes that this policy hurts savers, then offers some verbal sleight-of-hand worthy of a three-card monte hustle: He says the savers are helped by low rates because low rates support higher asset values and promote a healthy and growing economy. He then goes on to say that because savers benefit from a healthy and growing economy, we must therefore have an accommodative policy. This in turn begs the question: Does an accommodative policy really promote a healthy economy or just pump money to his friends? Chairman Bernanke argues that higher asset values create a wealth effect, which he again describes, "if people feel that their financial situation is better because their 401(k) looks better or for whatever reason, their house is worth more, they are more willing to go out and spend."  IF THE STOCK MARKET DOUBLES BUT THE VALUE OF THE DOLLAR IS CUT IN HALF, THE NET GAIN AFTER FEE'S ETC IS A LOSS. DON'T BE FOOLED BY THESE FOOLS AND THEIR BULLSHIT!

We have just spent 15 years learning that a policy of creating asset bubbles is a bad idea, so it is hard to imagine why the Fed wants to create another one. THEY HAVE NO CHOICE IF THEY WANT TO MAINTAIN THEIR POWER AND WEALTH, SO THEY LIE.  THEY ARE DELUDING THEMSELVES BECAUSE THEY ARE AIDING AND ABETTING AN EVEN LARGER COLLAPSE. THEY REALLY ARE THAT STUPID.

But perhaps the more basic question is: How fruitful is the wealth effect? Is the additional spending that these volatile paper profits are intended to induce overwhelmed by the lost consumption of the many savers who are deprived of steady, recurring interest income? We have asked several well-known economists who publicly support the Fed's policy and found that they don't have good answers.

If by this point it is unclear to anyone that Bernanke is not only not doing anything to help America, or the world, but is merely accelerating this country's destruction, and perpetuating the same practices that result in breakouts of food price shocks leading to isolated genocide in those parts of the world without a safety net, then we congratulate you on your imminent receipt of a Nobel prize in Economics.

Finally, for those asking "what should be done"

If Chairman Bernanke is setting distant and hard-to-achieve benchmarks for when he would reverse course, it is possibly because he understands that it may never come to that. Sooner or later, we will enter another recession. It could come from normal cyclicality, or it could come from an exogenous shock. Either way, when it comes, it is very likely we will enter it prior to the Fed having 'normalized' monetary policy, and we'll have a large fiscal deficit to boot. What tools will the Fed and the Congress have at that point? 

If the Fed is willing to deploy this new set of desperate measures in these frustrating, but non-desperate times, what will it do then? We don't know, but a large allocation to gold still seems like a very good idea.

So who should you listen to: a failed historian-economist who has never worked in the real world, who has no idea how human behavior plays out in reality, who has lived in an ivory tower all his life, and who has never had to put his money where his mouth is, or a self-made billionaire like David Einhorn? 

For me the choice is very clear.

Unfortunately, It seems that nothing will stop the money printing except a new crisis that ends with an enormous economic and currency collapse.


On September 13, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke announced Quantitative Easing 3. Bernanke said that the recovery is weak and needs more Fed stimulus. He said the Fed will purchase $40 billion of mortgage bonds per month in order to drive interest rates further below the rate of inflation and help to sell more houses.

But how do you sell houses to households who are getting by with 1967-68 levels of real income and who have absolutely no job security? Their company can be taken over and offshored tomorrow or they can be replaced by foreign workers on H-1B visas. Housing prices have dropped, but not to 1967-68 levels.

Bernanke's announcement that the Fed's purchase of mortgage bonds is to spur housing and the economy is disinformation. Bernanke is purchasing the bonds in order to boost the values of the derivatives and debt instruments in the banks' portfolios. Lower interest rates raise the value of the debt instruments on the banks' balance sheets. By depriving American savers of a real interest rate on their savings, Bernanke makes the busted banks look solvent.

This is what is happening in "freedom and democracy" America. The vast majority of Americans, especially the retired, are forced to consume their savings and draw down their capital because they can get no real interest on their savings. The beneficiaries are the banksters, who can borrow at near zero interest rates, charge consumers 16% on their credit cards, and use the Federal Reserve's largess to speculate on interest rate swaps and credit default swaps. The American taxpayers hold the bag for the banksters' uncovered gambles.

Would you not gamble if the American taxpayers had to cover your bets, but your winnings were yours alone?

The future of the American political order is in doubt. The Obama regime has so badly abused the Constitution and statutory law, that the America that Ronald Reagan left to us no longer exists. America is on the path to collapse or tyranny.

Suppose that a miracle produces an economic recovery. What becomes of the enormous excess bank reserves that the Federal Reserve has provided the banks?

If these bank reserves are used for expanding loans, the money supply will outstrip the production of goods and services, and inflation will rise.

If the Fed tries to take the excess reserves out of the banking system by selling bonds, interest rates will rise, thus destroying the wealth of bond holders and draining liquidity from the stock market. In other words, another depression will ensue that wipes out what is left of Americas inflated remaining wealth.

The Federal Reserve's announcement of QE3 shows that the Fed will continue to create new money in order to protect the values of the insolvent banks' questionable assets. The Federal Reserve represents the banksters, not the American public. Like every other American government institution, the Federal Reserve is far removed from concerns about average American citizens.

The Federal Reserve's purchase of bonds in order to drive down interest rates has produced a bond market bubble that is larger than the real estate and derivative bubbles. Economically, it is nonsensical for a bond to carry a negative real interest rate, especially when the government issuing the bond is running large budget deficits that it seems unable to reduce and when the central bank is monetizing the debt.

The bubble has been protected by the euro "crisis," which possibly is more of a virtual crisis than a real one. The euro crisis has caused money to seek refuge in dollars, thus supporting the dollar's value even while the Federal Reserve prints money with which to purchase the never-ending flow of the governments' bonds to finance trillion dollar plus annual budget deficits–about 5 times the "Reagan deficits" that Wall Street alleged would wreck the US economy.

Indeed, the US dollar's exchange value is itself a bubble waiting to pop. The sharp rise in the dollar price of gold and silver since 2003 indicates a flight from the US dollar. 

The bond market bubble will pop when the dollar bubble pops. The Federal Reserve can sustain the bond market bubble by purchasing bonds, and there are no limits on the Federal Reserve's ability to purchase bonds. However, the endless monetization of debt, even if the new money is stuck in the banks and does not find its way into the economy, will eventually spook foreign holders of dollar-denominated assets and they will flee.

Sooner or later the dollar will collapse from Washington's abuse of the dollar's role as reserve currency, and the dollar will lose its "safe haven" status. US inflation will rise, and US political stability, along with America's hegemonic power, will wane.

The Real Earnings Picture Is Bad And Getting Worse............

The Real Earnings Picture Is Bad And Getting Worse

Listening to the incessant chatter of confirmation bias from CNBC, you could be forgiven for thinking that earnings are 'not that bad'. Headline-makers like AMZN, GOOG, and AAPL scare for a few moments but we are reassured back to zombie-land by some disingenuous analyst (or worse a PM) who says he is buying with both hands and feet. 

The misleadingly top-down positive impression of looking at a 'beats-to-total ratio', suffers from one rather annoying bias (that often gets forgotten):  analysts constantly revising their expectations throughout the reporting period, and hence rarely deviates from the current level of 71%. 

But, as Citi notes, if one examines results relative to analyst expectations prior to the reporting season, it's clear just how disappointing Q3 has been - especially given the sell-side mark-downs already factored-in.

If one uses unrevised expectations - which simply anchor lower and make every succeeding number look relatively better and better as earnings season progresses in one direction or another -  then the S&P 500's earning surprises are even worse than Q2 - making the sixth quarter in a row of 'missed' pre-expectations...

Via Citi:

Third quarter earnings have surprised to the downside even more than in the second quarter.

What's more, earnings have been particularly disappointing given that sell-side expectations already underwent significant downward revisions months ago.  Indeed, the bottom-up estimate for S&P500 third quarter earnings per share dropped quite precipitously from above 28 down to 26.5 in July as management teams lowered their own guidance. Intriguingly, for as downbeat as third quarter results have been, we've yet to see the sell-side revise down estimates for next quarter or 2013 (see chart).

That could be an ominous sign given that the commentary on many a third quarter earnings call has been so cautious, particularly with respect to the fiscal cliff. Qualitatively speaking, we worry that with almost all companies missing top line revenue targets (most notably OC, AVT, NSC, LLY), fourth quarter earnings may end up disappointing sell-side analyst even more than Q3. Moreover, the weakness we've seen in the basics/cyclicals as a result of slower growth in China and Europe (DD, DOW, FCX) and the headwind that sequestration looks like it will pose to the defense industry (NOC, GD, LMT) create potentially formidable challenges for those sectors in particular.


The dollar's current counter trend move has not taken the price above 80.50. It looks like the rally is ending here, and a new decline is about to begin.  IF AN OVERSEAS CRISIS DEVELOPS FOREIGN MONEY WILL ONCE AGAIN FLOW INTO OUR MARKETS AND SUPPORT THE DOLLAR. THIS IS NOT A PERMANENT REMEDY.  A CURRENCY CRISIS IS INEVITABLE!

In the larger picture portrayed on the weekly chart. 80.50 is also a key level.

Since 2005, the dollar has meandered aimlessly between about 70-90, creating the appearance of a cork lost at sea. Now, a substantial breakdown seems to be occurring.

Oscillators are continuing to "head south", intensifying the long-term downtrend in the world's reserve currency.

In particular, please note the action of MACD, which is producing a fresh sell signal. Each high point attained by MACD is lower than the previous one.

The chart is covered with technical non-confirmations, suggesting the dollar may be ready to tumble.



Over the weekend, Germany's der Spiegel published an article quoting ECB head Mario Draghi saying "I explicitly support this proposal" – the proposal being that of German Finance Minister Schauble, asking European governments to permanently surrender sovereignty over their own national budgets, and hand control over to EU leadership in Brussels. Draghi added "If we want to re-establish trust in the eurozone, countries must pass a part of their sovereignty to the European level."

Investors should allow this to sink in, because this sort of "fiscal union" is the precondition for Germany to accept greater responsibility than it already has for bailing out its neighbors. Even then, Germany has already disavowed any responsibility to absorb the cost of a Spanish banking bailout, insisting that any funds provided from the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) will have to be repaid, and will represent additional debt of the Spanish government.

If it is not clear that European governments will unanimously agree to surrender their fiscal sovereignty, then it is also not clear that the euro will survive in its present form. My own impression is that the least disruptive outcome would be a split across central/peripheral lines, with stronger countries like Germany and Finland leaving first and redenominating either to their prior national currencies or to some sort of "euro forte", and abandoning the existing "euro faible" to other grossly indebted countries, which could then inflate as they please.

All of this follows a very clean line of developments over the past two years, though that clean line is constantly blurred by rhetoric to the contrary, which investors have misguidedly celebrated in hope that eventual German bailouts and unconditional money printing will make the whole European crisis go away. 

What we are left with is the continued likelihood of a massive restructuring of European banks, particularly Spanish banks, as well as further haircuts to the debt of Greece and possibly Portugal, Ireland, Italy, and – if it takes banking sector bailouts onto itself – Spain as well. Bad loans in Spanish banks jumped to 10.5% of assets in the most recent report –not far from the "adverse scenario" that was assumed to be highly improbable in the European banking stress tests. As an analyst at Nomura put it, "you can't assign a 1% probability to a scenario that already looks realistic." To the extent these realities aren't dealt with in a deliberate and orderly way, they will have to be dealt with in an abrupt and disorderly way not long from now.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble Warns Worst Is Yet to Come...........

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble Warns Worst Is Yet to Come

Europe's debt crisis seems to have entered a calm phase, but that's only an illusion, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble said last Tuesday. The worst is probably still to come, he warned.

The financial markets have been notably calm of late. Stock indexes have ticked upwards and interest rates on sovereign bonds have drifted downwards. The euro has also remained relatively stable against the dollar. And investor panic seems to have dissipated.

But appearances can be deceiving, said German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble on Tuesday. "I'm not so sure that the worst of the crisis is behind us," he said at a mechanical engineering conference in Berlin, warning that reform efforts needed to be re-doubled to ensure that trust in the euro returns.
His comments were echoed by Yves Mersch, a member of the European Central Bank Governing Council who was also present at the event. He warned that even if calm had returned to the markets, it could be deceptive. "The bleeding has been stopped, but the patient is not yet in the clear," he said.

Potentially more troubling, bank problems in Spain threaten to force Madrid to seek a full bailout from the European Security Mechanism, the euro zone's permanent bailout fund. And the situation isn't getting any easier. On Tuesday, Spain's central bank announced that the country's gross domestic product (GDP) had shrunk by an additional 0.4 percent in the third quarter, following a similar plunge in the second. The negative economic growth promises to make it even more difficult for Madrid to reach its ambitious austerity targets.

The Worst Is Yet to Come!


Monday, October 29, 2012



Computer Concepts, LLC
October 29, 2012
Dear Eric, 

With Hurricane Sandy barreling toward us, the possibility of a power outage is likely. Computer Concepts is standing by to provide power to those who need it should an outage persist throughout the week.

Power Availability
Power OutletOn August 27, 2011, the Hampton Roads area faces widespread power outages as a result of Hurricane Irene. Often times in events like this, power is restored to business districts before many residential ones. Last year, power was restored in New Town on Monday August 29 at around noon.

In the event of widespread power outages associated with Hurricane Sandy in Williamsburg and Yorktown, Computer Concepts plans to open as soon as power is restored to our facilities.

Once open, we'll offer power to people in the area to charge laptops and cell phones and Internet service, if available, will be offered as well.  Should we experience a power loss, we'll send email updates as to the status of the power in our stores, but should you lose access to email, please write down the numbers listed below.

Williamsburg: 757-564-3996

Yorktown: 757-873-1580
Should you need access to power and Internet, please call the numbers above to see if we are open.
Please forward this message, using the link below, to your friends, family and neighbors in the area as our doors will open for everyone should the need arise.  For now, stay dry, stay safe and don't take any unnecessary risks.


1. Hurricane Sandy. 

The Frankenstorm that has consumed the media (in part because it's historic and in part because it's barreling straight for the center of the media) is going to be a story that dominates the first half of the week, at least. The actual storm isn't expected to make landfall until Monday, but storms will be brutal before then, and the impacts thereafter will be determined by how badly heavily populated areas of New York and New Jersey get hit.

2. The Presidential Race. 

This is it! This is the final week before it's all over. Candidates will be furiously criss-crossing swing states (Ohio, mostly). Every poll number will be covered and dissected obsessively. The Hurricane is a bit of a wrench thrown into the campaign, as some states have already canceled early voting, and if there are long-term power outages, then some interesting questions will be raised about what happens on election day.

3. The Economy. 

There is TONS of economic data this week;

Here's a quick overview:

Monday, October 29:

Personal Income & Spending

Tuesday, October 30:

Case Shiller Home Price Index
Consumer Confidence

Wednesday, October 31:

ADP Jobs Report
Chicago PMI
Chinese PMI (PMI day begins in Asia)

Thursday, November 1:

European PMIs
Initial Jobless Claims
Challenger Job Cuts
Construction Spending
New Car Sales

Friday, November 2:


It's gonna be a big one! Get ready.



The SEC has confirmed that trading in all U.S. stock markets will be closed on Monday.

Sunday, October 28, 2012



Like a Thief in the Night.............

Like a Thief in the Night

"For yourselves know perfectly that the day of the Lord so cometh as a thief in the night." 

                                                                                                                         1 Thessalonians 5:2

There was a man who went shopping and left his car and house keys in the ignition. When he returned, his car was gone. The next morning he discovered his car in the driveway with a note that said, "I had an emergency. I'm very sorry. I needed your car. Here are two tickets for the Dallas Cowboys game."

The man went in and told his wife, "You won't believe this! There's our car, and look! We've got tickets to a Dallas Cowboys game!" 

They went to the game, and when they came home, their house had been cleaned out!

They never expected it, and that's the point. That's how the Lord Jesus Christ is going to come  as a thief in the night. THOSE THAT DON'T EXPECT IT ARE GOING TO BE SURPRISED TO SAY THE LEAST.

How would you live your life differently today if you knew that Jesus was coming back in 24 hours?

A Merciful Delay........Our Lord is coming!............

A Merciful Delay

"The Lord is not slack concerning His promise, as some men count slackness; but is longsuffering to us-ward, not willing that any should perish, but that all should come to repentance." 

                                                                                                                        2 Peter 3:9

Have you ever wondered why Jesus has not yet returned? 

I'll tell you why. Because our Lord is waiting on people to be saved. He's waiting on your family member, your neighbor, your co-worker, or maybe you, but one of these days soon, very soon perhaps, Jesus will come.

You see, it is the mercy of God that holds back the Second Coming of Jesus, but the justice of God and the judgment of God require that one day He will come.

Even now, the raging waters of God's wrath are furiously pounding against the dam of His mercy. And one of these days, the dam of God's mercy will give way to God's judgment, and the day of the Lord will come. 

Our Lord is coming!

Awake, you who sleep, Arise from the dead, And Christ will give you light. 

                                                                                                                            Eph 5:14

Does the Lord's return make your heart beat faster because you anticipate His coming or dread His coming?

The Just Shall Live by Faith...............

The Just Shall Live by Faith

"For therein is the righteousness of God revealed from faith to faith: as it is written, The just shall live by faith." 

        Romans 1:17

Is God righteous? Yes.  And how is the righteousness of God revealed? It is revealed from faith to faith. God gives you truth. You believe that truth; God gives you more truth.

The more you obey the light, the more light you get.

The reason some of us don't understand the Bible any more than we do is that we haven't been living up to the light God has already given us. It's time we began taking God at His Word and obeying it. 

If we begin obeying the small things we understand, God will enlighten our path to help us understand the things we don't understand.

Ask God today to give you understanding into the depths of His Word so that you can begin to share His truth in greater ways with the lost around you

Embracing God's Light by Faith..............

Embracing God's Light by Faith

"The people which sat in darkness saw great light; and to them which sat in the region and shadow of death light is sprung up."

                                   Matthew 4:16

There are two witnesses for the existence of God to all people:

One is the objective witness of creation.

The other is the subjective witness of conscience.

God speaks to a man and the man responds, "God, I want to know You and I need to know You. I do believe that You exist."

That's faith, and he goes from faith to faith as he steps in the light until he comes to the Lord Jesus Christ.

I believe with all my heart there's never been a man or woman who ever lived on the face of this earth who died without some opportunity to have received Christ, had they lived up to the light God gave them.

Find God before it is too late!

Looking Unto Jesus.........

Looking Unto Jesus

"Looking unto Jesus, the author and finisher of our faith; who for the joy that was set before Him endured the cross, despising the shame, and is set down at the right hand of the throne of God." 

                                                                                                                                                   Hebrews 12:2

What does it mean to "look to Jesus" to have all of our needs met? Well, let's say I borrow ten thousand dollars from Dan, a friend of mine, but then I discover that I can't pay it back. Dan is on to me and says, "If you don't pay it back, I'm going to foreclose on you."

So I go over to another friend, Tom, and tell him about my dire situation and ask for his help. Tom says, "That's alright, Adrian, look to me."

Notice that he didn't say, "Look at me." He said, "Look to me." In other words, "I'll handle it." That's what the Bible means when it says "look unto Jesus." It means look to Him for whatever you need.

Who is looking to you to have their needs met today? Are you then looking to God or are you trying to do it on your own?


A magnitude 7.7 earthquake struck off the west coast of Canada and a tsunami warning was issued, authorities said, but there were no immediate reports of major damage.

Saturday, October 27, 2012

THE SAD TRUTH..........




An 18 year old Italian girl tells her Mom that she has missed her period for 2 months.. Very worried, the mother goes to the drugstore and buys a pregnancy kit.

The test result shows that the girl is pregnant. Shouting, cursing, crying, the mother says,

                                    "Who wasa the pig that did this to you? I want to know!"  
The girl picks up the phone and makes a call. Half an hour later, a Ferrari stops in front of their house. A mature and distinguished man with gray hair and impeccably dressed in an Armani suit steps out of a Ferrari and enters the house.
He sits in the living room with the father, mother, and the girl and tells them:  "Good morning, your daughter has informed me of the problem".   
" I can't marry her because of my personal family situation but I'll take charge. I will pay all costs and provide for your daughter for the rest of her life".

"Additionally, if a girl is born,  I will bequeath a Ferrari, 
2 retail stores, a townhouse, a beach-front villa, and a $2,000,000 bank account..
If a boy is born , my legacy will be a couple of factories and a $4,000,000 bank account.  
If twins, they will receive a factory and $2,000,000 each..
However, if there is a miscarriage, what do you suggest I do?"
At this point, the father, who had remained silent holding a shotgun, places a hand firmly on the man's shoulder, looks him directly in the eyes and tells him "You'a gonna try again!"


You can follow Hurricane Sandy updates at the National Weather Service - National Hurricane Center.

State agencies are preparing for Hurricane Sandy in the following ways:

  • The Commonwealth has activated the Virginia Emergency Response Team.
  • The Virginia Emergency Operations Center is coordinating the state's response with increased staffing available 24 hours a day.
  • Virginia State Police personnel have been placed on stand-by and will be pre-positioned to the areas where they will be needed based on the final projected path of the hurricane. The Virginia State Police Swift Water Rescue Team is standing by in strategic locations.
  • Chainsaw crews from the Virginia Department of Forestry are standing by with emergency response personnel and to help with debris removal.
  • Virginia Department of Transportation crews are ready to clear roads and ensure roads are safe for travel.
  • The Virginia National Guard has been authorized to bring personnel on state active duty and begin prepositioning resources.
  • The Virginia Department of Health is coordinating with hospitals and long-term care facilities to ensure that they are prepared for storm impacts.

For information about preparing for Hurricane Sandy and for regular updates, visit For general information about the storm, dial 211. The Virginia Evacuation Coordination Team for Operational Response, along with the Virginia Department of Transportation, has created preparedness videos on hurricane evacuations and emergency supplies that can be viewed on YouTube or at  In addition, I have compiled a list of resources to help you this week before, during, and after the hurricane.


Virginia Hurricane Evacuation Guide. Review this information from the Virginia Department of Emergency Management on what to do if you need to evacuate your homes.

Be Informed. Knowing what to do before, during and after an emergency is a critical part of being prepared and may make all the difference when seconds count.

Compile an Emergency Kit.  Use this downloadable checklist to ensure you have necessary supplies on hand.

Family Emergency Plan. Make sure your family has a plan in case of an emergency. Before an emergency happens, sit down together and decide how you will get in contact with each other, where you will go and what you will do in an emergency. Keep a copy of this plan in your emergency supply kit or another safe place where you can access it in the event of a disaster.

Options for Protection. Depending on your circumstances and the nature of the emergency, the first important decision is whether you stay where you are or evacuate. You should understand and plan for both possibilities.

Hurricane Safety Checklist. Review this Hurricane Safety Checklist from the American Red Cross to prepare for the dangers of a hurricane.

Severe Weather Checklist.  Learn the steps to take before, during, and after severe weather hits.

Protect Your Home from Wind Damage.  Follow these steps to protect your home from hurricane wind damage.

Warning Systems and Signals.  Stay informed during a disaster through emergency broadcasts.

Subscribe to alert services. Many communities have developed systems that will send text messages or emails alerting you to local emergencies or bad weather. Check the community information page to find ways that you can be alerted for hurricane situations or sign up for local alerts:

Amelia County 
Phone: 804-561-3914804-561-3039
Emergency Website: 
Sign-up for Emergency Alerts:

Brunswick County
Phone: 434-390-2358
Emergency Website: 
Sign-up for Emergency Alerts: 

City of Chesapeake
Phone: 757-382-6464/757-382-2489
Emergency Website:
Emergency Alerts:

Chesterfield County
Phone: (804) 796-7068(804) 751-2378
Emergency Website:
Sign-up for Emergency Alerts:

City of Colonial Heights
Phone: 804-520-9300
Emergency Website:
Sign-up for Emergency Alerts:

Dinwiddie County
Phone: 804-469-5388804-469-3799
Emergency Website:
Sign up emergency alerts:

City of Emporia
Phone: 434-637-3697 (Emergency Management), 434-634-2121 (Police Dispatcher, Option 6)
Sign up emergency alerts:

City of Franklin
Phone: 757-562-8575 (Police/ Emergency Aid Dispatcher)
Sign-up for Emergency Alerts:

Greensville County
Phone: 434-348-4205
Sign-up for Emergency Alerts:

City of Hopewell
Phone: (804) 541-2275(804) 541-2298
Emergency Website: 
Sign-up for Emergency Alerts:

Isle of Wight County
Phone: 757-365-6308
Emergency Website:
Sign-up for Emergency Alerts:

Nottoway County 
Phone: 434-635-9044
Emergency Website: 
Sign-up for Emergency Alerts:

City of Petersburg 
Phone: 804-733-2328
Emergency Website:
Sign-up for Emergency Alerts:

Powhatan County  
Phone: 804-598-4878
Emergency Website:{50D9F322-9F4D-4E8C-8CAC-55AD9BE336F5} 
Sign Up for Emergency Alerts:

Prince George County
Phone: 804-733-2659
Emergency Website:  
Sign Up for Emergency Alerts: 

Southampton County  
Phone: 757-653-2100
Sign Up for Emergency Alerts:

City of Suffolk 
Phone: 757-514-4536
Emergency Website:  
Sign Up for Emergency Alerts:

Sussex County
Phone: 434-246-1044 or 434-246-8224 (Emergency Operation Center)
Emergency Website: 

Red Cross
Southeastern Virginia Chapter
American Red Cross
611 W. Brambleton Avenue
Norfolk, VA 23510-1004 
Phone: 757-446-7700

Greater Richmond Chapter
American Red Cross
420 East Cary Street
Richmond, VA 23219 
Phone: 804-780-2250

Southside Area Chapter
American Red Cross
3267 A South Crater Road
Petersburg, VA 23805 
Phone: 804-733-5711



DON'T MISS THIS.........

Fifty-year old manure spreader. Not sure of brand. Said to have been produced in Kenya. Used for a few years in Indonesia before being smuggled into the US via Hawaii. Of very questionable pedigree. Does not appear to have ever been worked too hard. Apparently it was pampered by various owners over the years. It doesn't work very often, but when it does, it can really sling the manure for amazing distances. I am really hoping to retire the manure spreader come this November.
 I really don't want it hanging around getting in the way of real progress any longer. I would prefer a foreign buyer to relocate the manure spreader out of the country. I would be willing to trade it for a nicely framed copy of the United States Constitution.
Location: Currently being stored in a big white house in Washington , D.C.

A COOL LEARNING SITE................

MentorMob allows users to create online "learning playlists" for a variety of subjects and skills you can learn like new languages, instruments, or school subjects. 

Anyone who browses MentorMob looking to learn something new will be able to see the best demos and how-tos on the internet, and "bypass all the junk."

Something Big Is Going On!.........A CLIP WORTH WATCHING

Something Big Is Going On!

Hosea 4:3 King James Version 

Therefore shall the land mourn, and every one that dwelleth therein shall languish, with the beasts of the field, and with the fowls of heaven; yea, the fishes of the sea also shall be taken away.

Friday, October 26, 2012

SANDY ..........

[Image of probabilities of 50 knot winds]





#10. FM 4-25-11 First Aid (2002) – Military First Aid Manual.First aid information is a must – get training before you need it – use this manual for reference.
#9. Guide to Canning– Being able to preserve crops to be able to provide for yourself and your family long after the growing season is over is important. This guide will help with that.
#8. Rangers Handbook (2006) – Crammed with info on demolitions, booby traps, communications, patrolling, tactical movement, battle drills, combat intelligence and much more
#7. Where There is No Dentist– The author uses straightforward language and careful instructions to explain how to: examine patients; diagnose common dental problems; make and use dental equipment; use local anesthetics; place fillings; and remove teeth.
#6. NATO Emergency War Surgery– While this is certainly not a manual that would stand alone in most persons emergency/disaster library, it is an absolutely necessary resource if you expect to handle any type of trauma where immediate comprehensive medical care is not available.
#5. A Guide to Raised Bed Gardening– This is not an "all knowing" gardening book – however it provides a lot of information to the "urban gardener" before or after TSHTF. Best to get the experience and knowledge of gardening NOW rather than later.
#4. FM 3-06 Combined Arms Operations in Urban Terrain – Combat techniques covered in the manual which may be very valuable in a "Roadwarrior"-type world.
#3. 1881 Household Cyclopedia – A massive resource of information that much of it has been lost over the past 203 generations. From Angling to Knitting – its here.
#2. FM 21-76-1 Survival-Evasion-Recovery (1999) – Excellent manual geared towards the soldier that finds himself behind enemy lines
#1. FM 21-76 US Army Survival Manual – From This manual has been written to help you acquire survival skills. It tells you how to travel, find water and food, shelter yourself from the weather and care for yourself if you become sick or injured. This information is first treated generally and then applied specifically to such special areas as the Arctic, the desert, the jungle and the ocean.1970 Military Issue Manual. General Introduction and Individual and Group Survival Orientation Navigation, Finding Water In All Parts of The Globe. How To Obtain Food, Start a Fire and much more!

The Dollar is Doomed.........AN ABSOLUTE MUST READ!

The Dollar is Doomed

"Record-low interest rates encourage present consumption and generate massive debt.  In just five years, total financial as well as nonfinancial American debt has surged by 51 percent or $10.9 trillion to more than $32 trillion, three times the annual Gross National Product.  The Federal government itself is chafing under a $6.8 trillion debt and adding $1.6 billion a day.  At present interest rates, this debt alone commands charges of $300 billion a year, or more than $1,000 per man, woman, and child."  According to Hans F. Sennholz in his essay - Saving the Dollar from Destruction - we are presented with a bleak financial future. Even under optimum conditions the alternatives are not pleasant. Now let's ask the 64,000 dollar question. 

What will happen when interest rates start to rise?

One needs to accept the fact that the world financial system rests upon an illusion. Fundamental balances and empirical realities have been masked for decades. Business relationships that produce real products and create intrinsic value are systematically penalized as interest rates are manipulated and currencies are crushed. 

All the time there is one constant - The DEBT grows . . .

Fiscal responsibility is dead. The age of inflation is the future. Cash was once king during a crash, but is no longer true. Today, the lessons of the past have been forgotten and the former proven rules to protect your wealth will not work. The worst of all times and the world hangs as the Sword of Damocles over the markets. Reversing the inescapable is impossible, that's why it is inevitable.

Before you dismiss this analysis as dangerous cynicism, the onus to provide an alternative how to service the debt rests with the critics. Surely, no rational person can conclude that government spending is stable. Deficits are dismissed as necessary and manageable. Prudence requires establishing a debt level that can be serviced without destroying the ability to conduct commerce. 

We are staring at an avalanche that will bury us when a critical mass of consensus finally admits that the furtherance in productivity, new technology and consumer demand can no longer support the ability to pay existing obligations.

Unprecedented low interest costs are unsustainable. 

As rates rise the current debt becomes more difficult to finance; however, the real risk is that creditors will refuse to rollover the bond debt. Equity markets will crash, because the currency will be seen for what it has become - a promise to pay that can't be met.

Never underestimate the measures that the financial magicians will use to paper over the problem. NEVER UNDERESTIMATE HOW STUPID AND GREEDY THEY ARE!

A debt crisis based upon a geometric progression of tax revenue shortfall requires a currency devaluation. Historic foreign trade deficits, crazed escalating federal spending, housing prices that far exceed homeowner after tax income ability to afford, costs of household necessities that continually rise - all add to the public and private debt. 

Individuals are driven into bankruptcy, but governments remain intact even when they are insolvent. MEN FIGHT BACK, COWARDS JUST TAKE IT! 

Sennholz is a brilliant economist. Nevertheless, his libertarian sacred cow is the fallacy that protective tariffs are always detrimental to the fiscal health of the world economy. Folks, this core issue is crucial. The most sincere and well meaning Free Traders, like Sennholz, don't deserve to be in the camp of the Corp/State internationalists. The crowd that preaches the benefits of open trade are the culprits that created the debt bubble.

This scholar of the Mises Institute contends: "Unfortunately, an American slide into protectionism would have grave consequences not only in the United States but also throughout the world.  It would not alleviate the very causes of the present imbalance: the Federal Reserve stimuli and Treasury deficits.  In fact, it would aggravate the situation as new import restrictions would cause goods prices to rise, consumption to be curtailed, and standards of living to fall.  It would slash various sources of government revenue, which in turn would boost budget deficits and make matters worse." 

Clearly, the Federal reserve is an artificial institution designed for placing and keeping Americans in economic slavery, but the notion that international trade conforms to a free marketplace is utterly absurd.

Government deficits are caused by foolish policies that pander to obscene special interests and a demented guilt and a false sense of global responsibility. Public debt is a result of the functions of a deranged Socialism that has captured the culture of dependent serfs. 

Politicians grab power by feeding the hungry, while the marketplace of legitimate business transactions are tormented under the burden of regulatory altruism.

How can the purchasing value of the dollar be preserved under this scenario? The way to judge tax rates is as a percentage of income. The true - extreme inflation - is the rise in the ratio of personal wealth transferred into the coffers of the State. When you add the fallen value in our currency to this equation, the net sum for each person is that our new abode will have a poor house address. 

Diminishing real returns on imaginary investments is the fate for savers as their wealth is systematically expropriated and intentionally confiscated. All the while the STATE carries on the business of protecting itself . . .

We encourage advocates of the gold standard, because it places an external restraint upon corrupt government officials. But don't expect that such a solution will see the light of day. 

The demise of the US Dollar as the world's reserve currency means that the chickens are coming home to roost. When foreigners stop holding Treasury debt the rush through the door will commence. They may even break through the windows to get out of a house consumed by an inferno of liabilities with no fire fighters left to put out the blaze. 

Like it or not, we are all participants at the gaming table and the House creates its own chips but never has to pay off on the rare occasion of a lucky bet from the mark. Implosion is necessary to wipe out the mechanism that created the debt bubble. Unfortunately, the pain will be real and almost impossible to be hedged.

The dollar was a median step towards a newer and more corrupt ideal. Its time is nearly over. This is open, it is admitted, and it is being activated as you read this. The speed at which this disaster occurs is really dependent on the speed at which our government along with our central bank decides to expedite doubt.  Doubt in a currency is a furious omen, costing not just investors, but an entire society.  America is at the very edge of such a moment.  The naysayers can scratch and bark all they like, but the financial life of a country serves no person's emphatic hope.