Thursday, December 31, 2015

Happy New Year!............

Happy New Year!

  1. May God spread prosperity and joy in your life on this New Year and fulfill all the dreams He has given to you!

Wishing you and your family a wonderful year ahead. 


And I said to the man who stood at the gate of the year:

Give me a light that I may tread safely into the unknown.

And he replied:

Go out into the darkness and put your hand into the Hand of God.
That shall be to you better than light and safer than a known way.

So I went forth, and finding the Hand of God, trod gladly into the night.









Lord,

Let this year be filled with the things that are truly good—with the comfort of warmth in our relationships, with the strength to help those who need our help and the humility and openness to accept help from others.

As we make our resolutions for the year ahead, let us go forward with great hope that all things can be possible—with Your help and guidance.


                                             Amen

THE NEW YEAR IS A GIFT FROM GOD............HAPPY NEW YEAR!

THE NEW YEAR IS A GIFT FROM GOD

As we look into the new year, We see 12 months, 52 weeks, 365 days, 8,760 hours, 525,600 minutes, 31,536,000 seconds. And all is a gift from God. We have done nothing to deserve it, earn it, or purchased it. Like the air we breathe, time comes to us as a gift from God.

The gift of time is not ours alone. It is given equally to each person. Rich and poor, educated and ignorant, strong and weak—every man, woman and child has the same twenty-four hours every day.

Another important thing about time is that you cannot stop it. There is no way to slow it down, turn it off, or adjust it. Time marches on.

And you cannot bring back time. Once it is gone, it is gone. Yesterday is lost forever. If yesterday is lost, tomorrow is uncertain. We may look ahead at a full year's block of time, but we really have no guarantee that we will experience any of it.

 Obviously, time is one of our most precious possessions. We can waste it. We can worry over it. We can spend it on ourselves. Or, as good stewards, we can invest it in the kingdom of God.

I Am the New Year...........HAPPY NEW YEAR!

I Am the New Year

I am the new year. I am an unspoiled page in your book of time.

I am your next chance at the art of living. I am your opportunity to practice what you have learned about life during the last twelve months.

All that you sought and didn't find is hidden in me, waiting for you to search it but with more determination.

All the good that you tried for and didn't achieve is mine to grant when you have fewer conflicting desires.

All that you dreamed but didn't dare to do, all that you hoped but did not will, all the faith that you claimed but did not have—these slumber lightly, waiting to be awakened by the touch of a strong purpose.

I am your opportunity to renew your allegiance to Him who said, "Behold, I make all things new."


A New Year's Prayer

May God make your year a happy one!
Not by shielding you from all sorrows and pain,
But by strengthening you to bear it, as it comes;
Not by making your path easy,
But by making you sturdy to travel any path;
Not by taking hardships from you,
But by taking fear from your heart;
Not by granting you unbroken sunshine,
But by keeping your face bright, even in the shadows;
Not by making your life always pleasant,
But by showing you when people and their causes need you most,
and by making you anxious to be there to help.
God's love, peace, hope and joy to you for the year ahead.

2015 FINAL DAY RECAP.........LOOKS LIKE 2015 WAS A DOWN YEAR!

Stocks open lower Thursday; Dow industrials move further into loss for 2015 with the start of trading Thursday.

Stocks are little changed for 2015:

Heading into the final day of trading, the S&P 500 sits at 2,063.36, virtually unchanged from its 2014 closing price of 2,058.90. The last time the benchmark averaged finished the year flat was 2011. Currently, the Dow is down 1%.

US Treasurys lost ground in 2015.

Treasury yields put in their lows for the year in January.
Up front, the two-year surged to fresh six-year highs after the Federal Reserve announced an interest-rate increase in December. For the year, the two-year rallied 60 basis points to 1.07%.
The 10-year yield put in its 2015 high of 2.48% in June before ending the year up 43 basis points at 2.29%.
Selling at the long end caused the 30-year yield to rise 28 basis points to 3.03%. The yield on the long bond put in its 2015 peak of 3.24% in June.

Commodities had a bad 2015.

Precious metals saw some early strength in 2015 but sold off throughout the year after their January gains. Gold sank 10% to $1,062 an ounce and silver lost 12% to $13.88 an ounce. On the industrial side, copper plunged 25% to $2.1360 a pound.

The energy complex had a rough year. Crude oil tumbled 31% to $36.74 a barrel as oil inventories swelled amid OPEC's plan to push out US shale players. An unseasonably warm fourth quarter pushed natural gas down to $1.75 per million British thermal units, but a late rally saw the energy component end 2015 down 19% at $2.37.

Despite endless financial engineering, sales for the S&P 500 have been declining for the last three quarters. And profits have declined for the first time since the 2009 expansion.

The recovery is a mirage... It isn't real... And it isn't sustainable.

Unhappy New Year: The U.S. Economy Is Stalling Out.

Wednesday, December 30, 2015

Money Velocity Is Crashing .........

Money Velocity Is Crashing

The inescapable conclusion is that Fed policies have effectively crushed the velocity of money.

That the velocity of money has been crashing while the money supply has been exploding doesn't seem to bother the mainstream pundits. There is always a fancy explanation of why whatever is crashing no longer matters.

Take a look at these two charts and then tell me money velocity doesn't matter. 

First, here's money supply: notice how money supply leaped from 2001 to 2008 as the Federal Reserve pumped liquidity and credit into the economy, and then how it exploded higher as the Fed went all in after the Global Financial Meltdown.


Now look at a brief history of the velocity of money. There are various measures of money supply and various interpretations of velocity, but let's set those quibbles aside and compare money velocity in the "golden era" of the 1950s/1960s and the stagflationary 1970s to the present era from 2008 to 2015--the era of "growth":



Notice how the velocity of money remained in a mild uptrend during both good times and not so good times. The inflationary peak of 1979-1982 (Treasury yields were 16% and mortgages were 18%) generated a spike, but velocity soon returned to its uptrending channel.

The speculative excesses of the dot-com era pushed velocity to unprecedented heights. Given the extremes in velocity, it is unsurprising that it quickly fell in the dot-com bust.

The Federal Reserve launched an unprecedented expansion of money, credit and liquidity that again pushed velocity up in the speculative frenzy of the housing bubble. But note that despite the vast expansion of money supply, the peak in the velocity of money was considerably lower than the dot-com peak.

Since the collapse of that speculative bubble, the Fed's all-in expansion of money, credit and liquidity has failed to stem the absolutely unprecedented collapse of money velocity.

Clearly, expanding money supply, credit and liquidity no longer generates any velocity.

Rather, the inescapable conclusion is that Fed policies have effectively crashed the velocity of money. 

How is this possible?

Our economy is locked up in fiefdoms, and they're picking winners and losers, as well as manipulating the prices. 

These false prices lock out certain people, like say, the young from housing. So starter houses don't sell, they stagnate.

Velocity is an indicator that shows buyers and sellers agree on a price, that the price is accepted and not an outlier.

That's why you see a stock move on high volume "confirming" the move, because it means the prices wasn't "right" at the previous level, while more people agree that the new price is fair so they are willing to pay up.

If prices are allowed to go where they need to without pressure and manipulation, you will always have velocity, as buyers and sellers will agree at some price and price movement will occur. Because this is true, low velocity cannot happen in a free market. Which means the only reason for low velocity (in this or the previous Depressions) is that someone has somehow managed to get an edge that prevents them from selling, from liquidating, i.e. the one the buyers will agree to. The Fed has provided this very mechanism and false valuations 
are abundant and ripe for corrective repricing.

This has another corollary, that the measure of velocity on the Fed's own chart is the measure of the level of unnatural price manipulation on the market. We can watch this aggregate indicator of their failure in real time, by the Fed's own hand, and we can know the manipulation is ending when it rises.

So yes, the Fed, the governments, the insiders can manipulate to their heart's content, as they've been doing, but that unnatural pressure goes somewhere. And the pressure diverts into velocity. As we saw in the Great Depression, or the Roman Empire, velocity can stagnate for 10, 20, or 1,000 years until the manipulation ends, property rights are restored, and we have a free market.

Manipulating the PR optics (i.e. perception management) as a substitute for an open market doesn't make you omnipotent, it makes you a hubris-soaked fool.

Can The Little Guy Win?........IS THERE ANY HOPE?

Can The Little Guy Win?

Even though the odds are never in our favor, there is still hope.

Not everyone has to make the extreme sacrifice in order to contribute to the revolution.

There are thousands of small acts which will weaken the establishment: Don't be a slave to debt. Live beneath your means and accumulate some physical silver and gold. Don't vote for candidates selected by the vested interests. Spread the message of liberty and freedom to anyone who will listen. Think critically. Do not trust your government.

The ruling class, in all cases, is driven by a voracious appetite for supremacy, wealth, and control. War is good for business and keeps the masses distracted, while the Wall Street financiers harvest the wealth of the citizens. The domination of the world by central bankers representing private interests has never been more evident than it has since the Federal Reserve created 2008 financial crisis and the traitorous actions taken by politicians and central bankers in the last seven years.

Few  in leadership positions in Washington DC, on Wall Street, in corporate America, or in the mainstream media are good. Those in positions of power will use any means necessary to gain or maintain power. The entire world is under the control of deceitful, cunning, egomaniacal, corruptible, psychopaths who will stop at nothing to fulfill their personal agendas. They are human beings who have allowed their dark sides to dominate their actions. There are no good guys, just varying degrees of evil imposed upon the masses by erratic unpredictable people with wildly differing levels of intelligence, patriotism and judgement.

Few in positions of power can be trusted. Betrayal, violence, money, power and war are the weapons of the state. Loyalty, courage, sacrifice, love and hope are the domain of the people. The state walks a fine line between keeping the masses controlled through entertainment, debt, fear and hope. If the people lose all hope, despair leads to anger as those with nothing to lose take to the streets.

The world is a morally ambiguous place where those in power and those seeking power utilize the influence of media propaganda and PR campaigns built around "heroes" and "icons" to psychologically control the masses, while enriching themselves and their crony capitalist sponsors. Endless war against the latest "bad guys" further enriches the arms dealers and their political lackeys who joyfully use faux patriotism and nationalistic fervor to insist upon more boots on the ground, drones in the air, bombs dropped, and missiles launched.

We live in a confusing world of anxiety, hate, greed, deceit and immorality, where governments throughout the world are nothing but rotting cesspools of psychotic despots desperately clinging to power while using any means necessary to keep the masses sedated and docile. Good people, with noble intentions, still exist in this decadent world, but they do not seek power or have any say in the governance of this world. The oppressed are hopelessly enslaved in debt, kept submissive by welfare transfers from the corrupt state, dumbed down by the state education system, amused by technological gadgets and vacuous entertainment, and kept in perpetual fear of seen and unseen enemies. We are told who to hate, who to fear, who to love, and who to believe by a nameless faceless state run by people we didn't elect, constituting the invisible government.

We must resist and oppose the ever growing oppressive power of a tyrannical state systematically dismantling the Constitution and stripping the people of liberty and freedom.

We've slipped away from a true republic. Now we're slipping into a fascist system where it's a combination of government, big business and authoritarian rule, and the suppression of the individual rights of each and every American citizen. When it comes to any significant differences on foreign policy, economic intervention, the Federal Reserve, a strong executive branch, a welfarism mixed with corporatism, both parties are very much alike.  The major arguments in hotly contested presidential races are mostly for public consumption to convince the people they actually have a choice.

It is the Nature of the State to Seek to Dominate the Populace

Freedom is one of the most precious and hard-won of all conditions in life. A government applies the removal of freedoms in a ratchet effect; once a freedom has been taken away from a population, it's rarely returned. Therefore, freedom tends to deteriorate over time in any nation, no matter how idealistically-founded it may have been.

Today, leaders and policymakers are acutely aware of the complacency of the majority of people. Rather than use force to get people to give up their freedoms, they use the populace's inclination to pay scant attention to the details of new policies – to instead follow the easy-to-absorb rhetoric instead. In this fashion, leaders can remove freedoms one after the other, no matter how transparent or even blatantly contradictory the methodology.

"When governments fear the people, there is liberty. When the people fear the government, there is tyranny." 

                                                                                                                                                       Thomas Jefferson

Freedom is not static. Those citizens who hope that it will simply remain intact if unattended are mistaken, for the State will always seek to remove freedoms over time. It's therefore the chore of every citizen to remain ever vigilant and to question everything that his government seeks to do to initiate change. It's often a dull, tedious task, but a very necessary one if the citizen values his remaining freedoms.

In this age of infinite distraction... when the entitled elect themselves, the party accelerates, and the brutal hangover is inevitable.

Prepare for the inevitable collapse of this rotten, fetid, corrupt paradigm.

The Great Deflationary Collapse Continues........A MUST READ!

The Great Deflationary Collapse Continues

There's simply way too much debt in the world. At more than $200 trillion of official total global debts — there is simply no way printing money could offset the deleveraging process that must occur.

Simply put, $3 trillion of Fed money printing, combined with another $2.4 trillion from other central banks over the past several years — a total of $5.4 trillion of printed money — is merely like throwing a coin in the middle of a lake and expecting a tsunami of inflation. It's not going to happen.

Combined, all the central banks of the world would have to print far more than $200 trillion for hyperinflation to ever strike.

To make matters worse, the deleveraging that started with the real estate crisis of 2008-09 has barely gotten started.

Quite the contrary, the total global debt burden has gotten worse, much worse. Since 2007, government debt has grown a whopping $25 trillion, more than $3 trillion per year.

Total global debt has mushroomed $57 trillion since 2007, more than $7 trillion per year.

Combined with austerity programs rammed down people's throats in places such as Europe and Japan, total global debt to GDP has increased an amazing 17 percentage points since 2007.

Some of the most indebted countries are absolute basket cases: Japan, debt to GDP: 517%. Spain, 401%. Germany, 258%. And the U.S., with official debt to GDP at a whopping 269%.

I say "official" because all the figures above are gathered from reliable statistical sources and do NOT include the effect of securitization, leverage upon leverage, and shadow banking, which exists even in the U.S.

Add in a rough but conservative estimate of another $200 trillion in unofficial debt, and you have a global economy getting crushed by over $400 trillion of debt, something that can never turn out to be anything but deflationary!

Europe was, is and will be the biggest threat to global growth and the biggest force behind deflation.

Europe's problems began way back in 1998 with a half-brained attempt to create a United States of Europe with a single currency.

A currency that did not have the proper banking or reserve infrastructure in place to work.

A currency that forced 19 different countries and 24 different official languages into one label …

And a currency that made it way too easy for weaker economies to join the Union, borrow loads of money at low rates, setting the stage for the collapses you are seeing now in countries such as Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy, and soon, even France.

The single currency experiment in Europe is the most ill-conceived economic/social experiment of all time. Europe is crashing and burning.

The attempted manipulation of the monetary systems there, of the cultures, of the different peoples and their traditions, their individual sovereignty and more …

Has caused most of the problems you are seeing today, most of the deflation. And it has also set the stage for civil wars and even the potential for international war as entire societies and cultures break apart as Germany and Brussels continue to insist on austerity and holding the Union together.

By 2020, the year war cycles peak, a short five years from now, you will see Europe torn apart at the seams, the euro fail as a currency, wars break out between member countries, and even secession movements succeed within countries.

Tuesday, December 29, 2015

When Will The Crash Happen?.....DO NOT MISS THIS!

When Will The Crash Happen?

Since the question "when is the crash going to happen?" is now being asked quite frequently. 

Here is the research on that topic. 

Timing a crash can be a fool's errand, and fortunately such efforts are largely irrelevant if you are tail hedging (though they are quite relevant if you aren't). When tail hedging efficiently, the extreme asymmetries in payoffs, by definition, remove any need to time the top. But this doesn't mean that exercises in timing are without merit.

Without a doubt (or at least with over 99% confidence), bad things happen with increasing expectation when conditioning on higher Q ratios ex ante. That is, when Q is high, large stock market losses are no longer a tail event but become an expected event. Factoring time into the equation, and again based on history, the confidence interval around the median time would point to an expectation that a crash should commence at almost any time now.



Monetary policy has proven to be effective over the past seven years in elevating asset markets. However, its effect has been limited to the price of assets (the "title" to existing capital), but not the price of new capital. This differential is depicted in the Q ratio, where one can think of the numerator as representing the aggregate price of the stock market and the denominator as the aggregate book value. 

The higher the ratio, the further the stock market is priced relative to the reality of the underlying capital, and the greater the implied return on that aggregate capital above the average aggregate cost of capital. 

This ratio has always had its breaking point, much to the frustration of interventionist monetary policy, as the numerator ultimately crashes back to the denominator, rather than the denominator catching up to the numerator (a fact that Keynesians have considered a central puzzle of economics). 

Indeed, the continued deviation of this ratio from its long run historical average is something that both economic history and, best of all, economic logic dictate as unsustainable.

The question becomes how deviations and extremes in the Q ratio are ultimately corrected. The short answer is: they are corrected via the numerator, i.e., through corrections in the aggregate stock market value. The further the Q ratio has deviated from its long run historical average, simply put, the further the stock market has to fall to correct that deviation (this is what the market's homeostatic process does so predictably well).



There are regularities in the "stopping time" to the market's homeostatic correcting of extreme Q deviations, and as we saw recently in China, even massive interventions can't ultimately stop such corrections. An equity holder should be very aware of the current valuation environment, the magnitude of the drop that is to be expected, and the inherent cyclicality behind the amount of time between crashes.

We are currently beyond the median amount of time, historically, before we would expect to see at least a 20% correction of the stock market (the numerator). Most importantly perhaps, the majority of the losses tend to happen in a concentrated plunge at the tail end of the path down to minus 20%. For instance, in just the last two months before the market passes through our 20% drawdown trigger, it typically (on average) has experienced a loss of nearly the entire 20%.



The very high probability of a crash currently implied by history flies in the face of a very low probability of a crash currently implied by the options market. 

The same beliefs that have pushed the market to extreme valuations have also returned option prices back to near record lows. If there is elevated risk in the equity market to the degree we have seen, counter-intuitively, it is not at all priced into options markets.



To use a favorite investing metaphor, the pot odds – the payoff, or the size of the pot relative to the price of calling – are very favorable compared to the hand odds – the likelihood of making the best hand; that is, we are getting to the point where a downside bet has very favorable odds.

In the recent August volatility (or in any other crashes we have seen), the tide turned both too surprisingly and too quickly for most to fully re-position until it was much too late. The future need not look like the past, but for an equity holder (or an opportunistic trader), the price of equity tail risk is not currently representative of that which has proven itself throughout history under similar (if not far less risky!) circumstances. How much further the rally stretches, whether another 10% or 100%, does not matter to an efficient tail hedger; it only adds to the expected magnitude and timing of a pending crash—which grows larger and sooner with each uptick in the stock market and tick of the clock—thus adding to the expected profitability and strategic advantage of the hedge.

For most investors in either case - buying or selling - there is little if any thought about taking on risk, rationally or otherwise. In both cases, they are unconsciously acting to reduce risk, thanks to the emotionally satisfying impulse to herd. Herds act to gain sustenance or avoid danger. Gazelles may lope together toward the water hole or dash in a herd from predators. The goal, albeit unconscious, of both types of actions is to reduce risk. Likewise, in market advances speculators herd as if trying to gain sustenance; and in market declines they herd as if trying to avoid getting killed... Subjectively, i.e. in their own minds, speculators perceive greater risk as less risk and less risk as greater risk. That is why they buy in uptrends and sell in downtrends. In the former case, they behave as if the herd is leading them to sustenance, and in the latter case they behave as if the herd is leading them away from danger. Ironically, the truth is wholly the opposite.

When members of a galloping herd suddenly begin to disperse, leaping and scattering about, it's the sign of a threat at close range. It's time to retreat, and quickly. In investing, a bullish herd that drives valuations to a speculative extreme and then begins to disperse is a warning sign of potential collapse. Likewise, a bearish herd that drives valuations to a panic low and then begins to disperse is a sign of opportunity. At present, we observe a herd at the peak of a valuation cliff, where an increasing proportion of the herd is backing away. It's increasingly urgent to dig in one's hooves to keep from dashing over the edge. We can do little for those who insist on remaining in full gallop, imagining that sustenance awaits them ahead.

After years of Fed-induced yield-seeking speculation that has driven equity valuations to the second most extreme point of overvaluation in history (and the single most extreme point on the basis of median valuations), investors have somehow convinced themselves that this time will be different; that this time the market will maintain at a permanently high plateau. That belief is nothing new - it's the same delusion that investors have held at speculative peaks across history, refusing to accept the familiar signs of danger until the equally familiar losses were conclusively in hand.

How did the S&P 500 trace out a total return of zero between 2000 and the end of 2011? By first losing half its value, then more than doubling, then losing more than half its value, and then doubling again. Across history, extreme valuations have invariably been followed by similar behavior - wide cyclical swings, yet only modest overall returns over the following decade.

I implore investors who could not comfortably ride out a market collapse similar to 2000-2002 or 2007-2009, or who rely on their assets to finance near-term spending plans, to shift their risk exposure down to a level that could tolerate that outcome. Understand that while valuations have been hostile for years, and while overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions have repeatedly emerged in the recent half-cycle without effect, the hinge that supported continued gains was a persistent willingness to speculate, as conveyed by uniformly favorable market internals. That support has dropped away. Ignore that key distinction at enormous risk. The market behavior we've observed in recent quarters is fully consistent with an extended top formation. With credit spreads predictably widening in successively larger spikes, that formation appears increasingly vulnerable to a steep vertical break of prior support. Once rich valuations are joined by deterioration in market internals, any prospects for further gains are overshadowed by the prospects for vertical losses.





Political Correctness Defined......A MUST READ!

Political Correctness Defined

We all need to understand that political correctness is not about being nice. It's not simply a social issue, or a subset of the culture wars. It's not about politeness, or inclusiveness, or good manners. It's not about being respectful toward your fellow humans, and it's not about being sensitive or caring or avoiding hurt feelings and unpleasant slurs. 

So what exactly is PC? 

Political correctness is the conscious, designed manipulation of language intended to change the way people speak, write, think, feel, and act, in furtherance of an agenda. PC is best understood as propaganda.

PC fundamentally is a lie. 

It is about refusing to deal with the underlying nature of reality, in fact attempting to alter that reality by legislative and social fiat.

To quote Hans-Hermann Hoppe:

The masters … stipulate that aggression, invasion, murder and war are actually self-defense, whereas self-defense is aggression, invasion, murder and war. Freedom is coercion, and coercion is freedom. … Taxes are voluntary payments, and voluntarily paid prices are exploitative taxes. In a PC world, metaphysics is diverted and rerouted. Truth becomes malleable, to serve a bigger purpose determined by our superiors.

To be sure feudal chiefs, kings, emperors, and politicians have ever and always attempted to control the language, thoughts, and thus the actions of their subjects. Thought police have always existed.

To understand the origins of political correctness, we might look to the aforementioned Marx, and later the Frankfurt school. We might consider the work of Leo Strauss for its impact on the war-hungry think tank world. We might study the deceptive sloganeering of Saul Alinsky. We might mention the French philosopher Foucault, who used the term "political correctness" in the 1960s as a criticism of unscientific dogma.

But if you really want to understand the black art of PC propaganda, let me suggest reading one of its foremost practitioners, Edward Bernays.

Bernays was a remarkable man, someone who literally wrote the book on propaganda and its softer guise of public relations. He is little discussed in the West today, despite being the godfather of modern spin.

He was the nephew of Sigmund Freud, and like Mises was born in Austria in the late nineteenth century. Unlike Mises, however, he fortuitously came to New York City as an infant and then proceeded to live an astonishing 103 years.

One of his first jobs was as a press agent for President Woodrow Wilson's Committee on Public Information, an agency designed to gin up popular support for US entry into WW1 (German Americans and Irish Americans especially were opposed). It was Bernays who coined the infamous phrase "Make the World Safe for Democracy" used by the committee.

After the war, he asked himself whether one could "apply a similar technique to the problems of peace." And by "problems," Bernays meant selling stuff. He directed very successful campaigns promoting Ivory Soap, bacon and eggs as a healthy breakfast, and ballet. He directed several very successful advertising campaigns, most notably for Lucky Strike in its efforts to make smoking socially acceptable for women.

The Role of "Herd Psychology"

Bernays was quite open and even proud of engaging in the "manufacturing of consent," a term used by British surgeon and psychologist Wilfred Trotter in his seminal Instincts of the Herd in Peace and War published in 1919.

Bernays took the concept of herd psychology to heart. The herd instinct entails the deep seated psychological need to win approval of one's social group. The herd overwhelms any other influence; as social humans, our need to fit in is paramount.

But however ingrained, in Bernays's view the herd instinct cannot be trusted. The herd is irrational and dangerous, and must be steered by wiser men in a thousand imperceptible ways — and this is key. They must not know they are being steered.

The techniques Bernays employed are still very much being used to shape political correctness today.

First, he understood how all-powerful the herd mind and herd instinct really is. We are not the special snowflakes we imagine, according to Bernays. Instead we are timorous and malleable creatures who desperately want to fit in and win acceptance of the group.

Second, he understood the critical importance of using third party authorities to promote causes or products. Celebrities, athletes, models, politicians, and wealthy elites are the people from whom the herd takes its cues, whether they're endorsing transgender awareness or selling luxury cars. So when George Clooney or Kim Kardashian endorses Hillary Clinton, it resonates with the herd.

Third, he understood the role that emotions play in our tastes and preferences. It's not a particular candidate or cigarette or a watch or a handbag we really want, it's the emotional component of the ad that affects us, however subconsciously.

What We Can Do About It

So the question we might ask ourselves is this: how do we fight back against PC? What can we do, as individuals with finite amounts of time and resources, with serious obligations to our families, loved ones, and careers, to reverse the growing tide of darkness?

First, we must understand that we're in a fight. PC represents a war for our very hearts, minds, and souls. The other side understands this, and so should you. The fight is taking place on multiple fronts: the state-linguistic complex operates not only within government, but also academia, media, the business world, churches and synagogues, nonprofits, and NGOs. So understand the forces aligned against you.

Understand that the PC enforcers are not asking you, they're not debating you, and they don't care about your vote. They don't care whether they can win at the ballot box, or whether they use extralegal means. There are millions of progressives in the US who absolutely would criminalize speech that does not comport with their sense of social justice.

One poll suggests 51 percent of Democrats and 1/3 of all Americans would do just that.

The other side is fighting deliberately and tactically. So realize you're in a fight, and fight back. Culturally, this really is a matter of life and death.

We Still Have Freedom to Act

As bad as PC contamination may be at this point, we are not like Mises, fleeing a few days ahead of the Nazis. We have tremendous resources at our disposal in a digital age. We can still communicate globally and create communities of outspoken, anti-PC voices. We can still read and share anti-state books and articles. We can still read real history and the great un-PC literary classics. We can still homeschool our kids. 

This is not to say that bucking PC can't hurt you: the possible loss of one's job, reputation, friends, and even family is very serious. But defeatism is never called for, and it makes us unworthy of our ancestors.

Use humor to ridicule PC. PC is absurd, and most people sense it. And its practitioners suffer from a comical lack of self-awareness and irony. Use every tool at your disposal to mock, ridicule, and expose PC for what it is.

Never forget that society can change very rapidly in the wake of certain precipitating events.We certainly all hope that no great calamity strikes America, in the form of an economic collapse, a currency collapse, an inability to provide entitlements and welfare, energy shortages, food and water shortages, natural disasters, or civil unrest. But we can't discount the possibility of these things happening.

And if they do, I suggest that PC language and PC thinking will be the first ornament of the state to go. Only rich, modern, societies can afford the luxury of a mindset that does not comport with reality, and that mindset will be swiftly swept aside as the "rich" part of America frays.

Men and women might start to rediscover that they need and complement each other if the welfare state breaks down. Endless hours spent on social media might give way to rebuilding social connections that really matter when the chips are down.

More traditional family structures might suddenly seem less oppressive in the face of great economic uncertainty. Schools and universities might rediscover the value of teaching practical skills, instead of whitewashed history and grievance studies. One's sexual preferences might not loom as large in the scheme of things, certainly not as a source of rights. The rule of law might become something more than an abstraction to be discarded in order to further social justice and deny privilege.

Play the Long Game

I'm afraid it might not be popular to say so, but we have to be prepared for a long and hard campaign. Let's leave the empty promises of quick fixes to the politicians. Progressives play the long game masterfully. They've taken 100 years to ransack our institutions inch by inch. I'm not suggesting incrementalism to reclaim those foregone institutions, which are by all account too far gone — but to create our own.

PC enforcers seek to divide and atomize us, by class, race, sex, and sexuality. So let's take them up on it. Let's bypass the institutions controlled by them in favor of our own. Who says we can't create our own schools, our own churches, our own media, our own literature, and our own civic and social organizations? Starting from scratch certainly is less daunting than fighting PC on its own turf.

Conclusion

PC is a virus that puts us — liberty loving people — on our heels. When we allow progressives to frame the debate and control the narrative, we lose power over our lives. 

Is it really that unimaginable that you might wake up one day and find sites with anti-state and anti-egalitarian content blocked? 




FIVE THINGS YOU SHOULD BE VERY CONCERNED ABOUT............

FIVE THINGS YOU SHOULD BE VERY CONCERNED ABOUT

Central banks have accomplished five things, none of them good for the average citizen or our economy:

Brought demand forward at the expense of future GDP

Encouraged more leverage and increased debt levels

Increased speculation in financial assets

Created bubbles in equities and bonds

Mistaken economic activity for malinvestment

The solution is not more of this insanity, but rather an admission that central banks are themselves the source of the problem.

Of course Keynesian fools would never admit such a thing. 

Powerful economic illiterates don't admit they are wrong or resign, they just keep promoting policies that both common sense and history show can never work.

Monday, December 28, 2015

There Has Never Been A More Selfish Generation......DO NOT MISS THIS!

There Has Never Been A More Selfish Generation

What other generation has been so amenable toward letting future generations pay for their lavish lifestyles?

Even those in the US who do not live in veneered mansions enjoy a lifestyle made possible only by compounding the greatest mountains of rotting, stinking national debt mankind has ever seen. This rubbish is their gift to posterity as, again,they have no thought whatsoever of attempting to pay off this debt.

Our generation has decided the next generation can pay the bill for all of our generosity. 

We create welfare programs that we finance far into the future. We do this so that we can feel like we take care of our poor, but we hand the actual burden of paying for our largess off to our children and grandchildren!

We also let the next generation pay for our security. We are not bravely defending ourselves by our own strength. We are sapping the future strength of our grandchildren to defend ourselves now.

We are generous with other people's money — people who are not even alive today and who have no say in these decisions that they shall pay for. The majority remain committed to government that finances its love and war far into the future with piles of debt that no one can repay.

Congress has stated over and over that it is just kicking the can further down the road, but that has never stopped them from doing it, no matter which parity is in charge! Both parties complain about kicking our national-debt problem further down the road, but they do it anyway. Democrats and Republicans are equally addicted to debt. US citizens who call themselves by either party monicker are part of a generation that wants to party on but doesn't want to and can't afford to pay for the party. We are a nation drunk on debt.

Both parties are guardians of the status quo and defenders of the wealthy; and neither party has a genuinely creative idea in its collective head. 

The only difference between Democrats and Republicans economically is what things motivate them to spend other people's money.

The Welfare party, known as the the Democratic Party, enables its millions of members to feel generous by ordering their grandchildren to pay for the meals given today to hungry families.

Republicans, on the other hand, like to pretend they are fiscally conservative; but they have always proposed budget deficits, too, and have repeatedly shown themselves willing to play games with the national credit rating. While Republicans claim they are against big government, they are really only against big-government regulations on businesses.

Republicans have created deficits to fund all of that government expansion. Why didn't they create deficits to stimulate the economy with new jobs by building roads and improving dilapidated sewer systems, improving the efficiency of highways, upgrading infrastructure. Why? Because that kind of government spending actually does stimulate the economy by creating hundreds of thousands of jobs, and Obama might get the credit. It also is work that needs to be done and that is ordinarily the province of government, so it is work Republicans would normally be supportive of, but not if it's going to make a Democrat president look good.

The only difference between the two parties fiscally is the things that make them willing to pile up mountains of debt. The only difference is what they want to spend the money on.

How pathetic and weak is it to defend your country with your children's future?

If we actually cared, we'd stop kicking the can down the road.

The next generation will just have to suck it up when the bill comes due. That is what our actions say, even though people may wince or even get angry at hearing it. Anger is denial's usual defense.

We need to stop pretending that we are generous and thoughtful toward the poor or strong and wise in defending our country … if you are going to shove the cost of your largess or strength off on to your grandchildren, what we really are is pathetic.

Both Democrats and Republicans created the lie that their bankster friends were "too big to fail," even as they idly watched the banks made bigger by order of the Federal Reserve. Neither party has pressed hard to send busted bankers and broken brokers to jail. They have time to jockey for political power but no time to make sure potbellied bankers go to prison.

If "too big to fail" was not a lie, why would both parties sit back all these years and allow the Fed to make those tipsy, top-heavy banks even bigger while it seemed to surreptitiously let a few banks fail?

Democrats and Republicans equally participated in taking the status quo and amping it up on steroids. They have turned every major bank into a colossus. They took a national debt the size of Texas and turned it into a national debt the size of a continent. It seems the only solution to anything our greedy leaders understand is that bigger is better, even when they claim bigness is the problem.

The Great Recession proved to be, as so often is the case (under the crony politics of both parties), a convenient opportunity for the fat-and-wealthy to become more rotund at fire-sale prices. While the largest banks on earth gobbled each other up in a government-encouraged feeding frenzy, the risks of such carnivorous ventures were underwritten by taxpayers.

If the big banks were allowed to collapse, their money would simply disintegrate into the thin air from which it was originally created as the banks went up in smoke. In creating new fiat money, you are only making that lost, old fiat money back up. You are not expanding the total money supply; you are just relocating it … like double-entry bookkeeping.

We created trillions in new money anyway through zero-interest expansion of our money supply and quantitative wheezing. That didn't create any of the customary inflation we were concerned about because it all went to banks to invest in stocks and bonds and barely entered regular circulation. As a result, it inflated the stock and bond markets to the point of approaching collapse, which we will pay for dearly in the form of economic disruption.

What is the inflationary difference between creating vast amounts of money in the reserve accounts of major banks as the Fed did via QE and creating that same amount of money, instead, in numerous smaller and healthier banks in the names of the people and institutions whose deposits would have been flushed away by the failure of colossal institutions? The difference is that the money would immediately flow into Main Street's economy, instead of Wall Street, which might have actually created a little of the inflation the Fed has said it wants.

That would still serve the interest of our wealthy patricians, as all money bubbles up. You cannot buy pajamas on Main Street at Christmas with the money in your newly recreated bank account without that money transferring to Macy's or Walmart and eventually to bank accounts of their stockholders. So, the money always trickles up, but the Federal Reserve is owned by big banks, and they greedily wanted the money directly. Thus, the new money all bypassed Main St. and went straight to Wall St. where the wealthy bid up stock, which benefited only themselves.

The Republicans and Democrats who stepped in to save the world only like capitalism so long as it is creating wealth for them and their friends; they don't like its "self-regulating" mechanisms for correcting greed when we fail to regulate people away from greedy actions in the first place. At that point, suddenly all the capitalists become collectivists and socialized the cost of their failed and failing financial experiments.

The sad fact is, we've done NOTHING to rectify those dangers! 

We've had seven years and have done nothing at all! Republicans and Democrats alike twiddle their thumbs and pretend they do not see that the banks that were too big to fail are now twice as large as they were back then. One has to conclude they were lying when they told us these institutions were too big to fail because they have presided over a process that guaranteed those institutions would become much bigger.

Where is the outrage that this has happened?

The truth is that the vast majority of the American public is too ignorant to understand what has happened and what the real consequences of this will be. Because we squandered our opportunity to correct our own problems, our problems shall be our legacy. 

Congress, unwilling and unable to make brave decisions, was all too willing to believe the Fed could engineer recovery on its own. Congress abdicated its authority and responsibility. The Fed sometimes warned congress it could not solve the problem on its own and that fiscal policy must be put in place to create a more sound economy, but those warnings were faint … I suspect because the Fed's head was inflated by the idea that people thought the Federal Reserve could save the world. The Federal Reserve, in its pride, came to believe that itself.

What the Fed gave us was anesthesia. Had we diligently used the past seven years we had under anesthesia to restructure our economy away from debt, it could have saved us a painful transition. Instead, we let the anesthesia numb us to the mending that needed to be done and then left the injuries untreated.

Now the anesthesia has run out, but we still have all the corrections to make. Because we have piled up mountains of debt, we have no reserve strength left. We have squandered our opportunity for change in order to maintain the status quo by financing everything with even more debt so that we'd never have to feel the pain of correction.

We continued with adjustable-rate mortgage traps. 

We continued our sloppy terms of credit. 

We continued to allow deregulated banks to speculate in the stock market. 

We don't allow people with 401k's to operate outside of the services of fund managers by letting them buy and hold actual bonds under tax advantages of a 401k plan. 

We instituted interest rates that discourage savings as if they were the plague. 

We tried to re-inflate the housing market with those same zero interest base rates, instead of letting housing prices deflate back to a level where people can afford a home without ridiculous terms of credit. 

We repeated the sloppiness of auto financing that extends years beyond the collateral value of the automobile with no downpayment required.

It's wretched how dumb we are in our greed to have everything right now in the cheapest way possible and how willing we are to force the debts of that consumption upon our grandchildren and to pretend that won't hurt them. 

We live in economic denial! 

This is no way to run an economy or society. 

No way to build an economy for future strength. 

No way to treat future generations who must follow in our footsteps, footsteps that are already mired in a quagmire of very sticky, deepening mud.

WE ARE THE MOST IGNORANT, EDUCATED SOCIETY, TO EVER WALK THIS PLANET!

SELFISHNESS, GREED AND STUPIDITY ARE NOT SOLUTIONS, THEY ARE SYMPTOMS OF A HORRIBLE DISEASE.










IN A NUTSHELL, DON'T WORRY, BE HAPPY!......

IN A NUTSHELL, DON'T WORRY, BE HAPPY!

100 years of history proves that the Fed is clueless. 

The mismatch between interest rates and risk today is absolutely insane. 

The whole global financial system based on this charade is going to blow sky high.

The Fed has essentially boxed itself into a corner from which it cannot escape without extremely negative consequences for the global financial system.

The situation in Syria seems like it's the biggest powder keg in the history of the world. We are being dragged into something that's just extremely foolish, it could easily be World War III.

Central banks, by unfairly inflating asset prices have compressed risk like a spring to unfairly tight levels. Unfortunately, the market is aware the price of risk is not correct, but they can't fight it, and everyone is forced to crowd into the same trade. By manipulating markets they have also reduced investors' inherent conviction by rendering fundamentals less relevant.

This then creates a highly unstable (fragile) situation that breaks violently when a sufficient catalyst causes risk to rise – overly crowded positioning meets a market with little conviction.

Catalysts can range from a "valuation scare" similar to Oct-14 or Aug-15 to a prominent investor stating that assets (e.g. bunds) are not fairly priced and are the "short of the century".

The unwinds from these crowded positions are violent, but almost equally violent in some cases are the reversals, which are driven from investors crowding back in when they realize central banks are still there providing protection.

Risk is not fairly priced based on fundamentals but rather is better explained by investors not wanting to stand in front of central banks as they provide ever more QE. Now that rates have begun to rise risks will also rise. 

A crisis is always contained – until suddenly it isn't.......





 

ISIS Flees Ramadi, This Is What They Left Behind....

ISIS Flees Ramadi, This Is What They Left Behind

Below are some pictures from Ramadi, a city that is just an hour by car from the capital of a country the US supposedly "saved" from a bleak future under a brutal dictator more than a decade ago. 

This is what a thriving democracy looks 12 years after a US intervention:

Next on the list is Mosul. 

In light of the following image which appeared in a piece of ISIS propaganda released earlier this year, we're interested to see what the city actually looks like now that the group has been in control for some 18 months...

Thursday, December 24, 2015

MARY DID YOU KNOW?

MARY DID YOU KNOW?

A VERY PROFOUND QUESTION....NOT ONLY FOR MARY, BUT FOR OUR VERY TROUBLED WORLD.

WHEN SHE KISSED HIM SHE KISSED THE FACE OF GOD....THINK ABOUT THAT FOR A MOMENT!






MERRY CHRISTMAS........

MERRY CHRISTMAS

May the timeless message of Christmas fill your heart and home with joy.

May the blessing of knowing Christ enrich your life in the new year.

May love be in your life, May hope be in your heart, May peace be in our world.

May the blessings of God's special gifts be yours this Christmas and in the New Year.


The warmth of home and hearth to you  

The cheer and good will of friends to you  

The hope of a childlike heart to you  

The love of the Son and God's peace to you.

I wish you a Christmas filled with the wonder of the birth of Christ.

Glory to God in the Highest!

THE VERY FIRST KING SIZE BED.......

MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL.........

THE VERY FIRST KING SIZE BED

Away in a manger, no crib for a bed, the little Lord Jesus, lay down his sweet head. The stars in the sky looked down where he lay, the little Lord Jesus, asleep on the hay.

THANK GOD FOR THAT BED AND THE BABY WHO SLEPT THERE!








To one who has faith, no explanation is necessary.
To one without faith, no explanation is possible".

                                                                   Thomas Aquinas




Friday, December 18, 2015

Fwd: Stress In Markets Is Real And Growing..........AN ABSOLUTE MUST READ!

Stress In Markets Is Real And Growing

Over the last two decades the Fed's interventionism has created artificial booms and real busts. Their dreadful mistakes are "fixed" by currency debasement, lower interest rates, and money printing – creating even worse mistakes. They have successfully gutted the American economy and left a hollowed out shell. The coming collapse will be three pronged as stocks, bonds, and real estate are all simultaneously overvalued. Junk bonds are the canary in a coalmine.

We are living in a time that can only be considered monetary chaos. The media and the policy pundits may focus on the day-to-day zigs and zags of central bank monetary and interest rate policy, but what really needs to be asked is whether or not we should continue to leave monetary and banking policy in the discretionary hands of central banks and the monetary central planners who manage them.

The truth is that events have finally caught up with the structural distortions of a financial world running on illusion. To everything there is a season, turn, turn, turn, and economic winter is finally upon us. All the world 'round, people borrowed too much to buy stuff and now they're all borrowed out and stuffed up. Welcome to the successor to the global economy: the yard sale economy, with all the previously-bought stuff going back into circulation on its way to the dump.

The continued misuse of capital and continued erroneous monetary policies have instigated not only the recent downturn but actually 30 years of an insidious slow moving infection that has destroyed the American legacy. "Recessions" should be embraced and utilized to clear the "excesses" that accrue in the economic system during the first half of the economic growth cycle. Trying to delay the inevitable, only makes the inevitable that much worse in the end.

We have the most serious BUBBLE in history. The FED is between a rock and a hard place. The market is desperate to convince itself that just as more easing and more QE were bullish for the market, so rate hikes are just as bullish. You should be very skeptical of the Fed's ability to continue to control market forces much longer.

We have reached the apogee of history's greatest credit inflation. Now we're hurtling into a prolonged worldwide deflation. You can already see this deflation in the plunge of oil, iron ore, copper and other commodity prices. We are in uncharted waters after nearly 20 years of madcap money printing by the Fed and other central banks. The world's central banks are finally out of dry powder. They no longer have the means to inflate the global credit and financial bubble.

There is a Category 5 deflationary hurricane forming off the Chinese coast as Beijing accelerates the devaluation of the yuan against the dollar under the guise of "reform". The truth is that this deflationary storm has already laid waste to the global commodity complex, doing trillions of dollars in damage. The truth is that this deflationary storm has driven inflation expectations down to levels last seen when the world was coming to an end in the Lehman aftermath.

With economic growth currently running at THE LOWEST average growth rate in American history, the time frame between the first rate hike and next recession will not be long. For investors, there is little "reward" in the current environment for taking on excess exposure to risk assets. The deteriorating junk bond market, declining profitability and weak economic underpinnings suggest that the clock has already begun ticking. The only question is how much time is left.

Wall Street's proclivity to create serial equity bubbles off the back of cheap credit has once again set up the middle class for disaster. The warning signs of this next correction have now clearly manifested, but are being skillfully obfuscated and trivialized by financial institutions and the mainstream media. Those in power never understand markets. They are very myopic in their view of the world. The assumption that lowering interest rates will "stimulate" the economy has NEVER worked, not even once. Nevertheless, they assume they can manipulate society in the Marxist-Keynesian ideal world, what if they are wrong? AND THEY ARE VERY WRONG!

The world's central banks have finally run out of dry powder. They will be unable to stop the credit implosion which must inexorably follow the false boom.

There's No Upside Left

The upside is ephemeral, illusory or wishful thinking; the downside is real and lasting.

There's no upside left--not just in the real economy, but in jobs, politics or policy tweaks. Yes, there will be huge relief rallies in the stock market--relief that the Fed is still omnipotent, that the Fed didn't destroy the world by withdrawing liquidity, etc., etc., etc.--but in terms of sales and profits, there's no upside left: an increasingly nervous upper middle class is reining in profligate spending, while everyone below the top 10% is running out of credit cards, student loans, etc. to tap.

Whatever surplus the real economy generated has been skimmed by financiers, lenders and the central state. Stock buybacks have boosted the wealth of corporate managers and institutional owners while creating zero jobs; lenders have feasted on high-interest credit cards, federally backed student loans and subprime auto loans that are immediately spun off to credulous suckers as high-yield securitized debt.

Anyone working for Corporate America or government has little upside but plenty of downside: bonuses are being slashed, divisions closed, sold off or privatized in the case of government, all to cut costs.

State and local pension funds, bloated by seven years of speculative frenzy, are about to start bleeding from every orifice as reality and risk intrude on the central banks' fantasy of never-ending asset bubbles.

Whatever pension and bennies you were promised--start practicing your fractions, because only a fraction of the bloated promises made by politicos desperate to get re-elected can be paid in the real world.

Doing a great job will either get you fired or overworked: no upside there. If you have the courage (or foolish devotion to truth) to be honest, then you'll be fired as a disruptive "non-team-player" who stepped on too many toes in the pursuit of excellence.

Or if you knuckled under and kept the truth to yourself but managed to get the impossible tasks completed despite the incompetence and/or shoddy work ethic of your managers and peers, you'll get promoted to a job that requires twice the responsibility and workload for a 10% raise.

Anyone taking one of the hundreds of thousands of low-paying service-sector jobs has limited upside in pay and benefits; the corporate owners skim whatever upside there is because labor is in surplus except for narrow fields of expertise.

Productivity gains have been skimmed by corporate owners or the managers: Wage Gains: For Your Boss - Yes; For You - Not So Much.

It's all downside.....

It would be nice if an elected official could downsize the Empire or the Deep State, but this is wishful thinking. Can anyone force a radical downsizing (i.e. slashing and burning waste and inefficiency, eliminating multiple layers of management, unraveling cartels and monopolies, closing loopholes for patent-troll litigation, etc.) of the weapons acquisition monstrosity, the regulatory monstrosity, the litigation monstrosity, the healthcare/sickcare monstrosity, or the ineffective higher education monstrosity?

The legions living off these inefficient, bloated systems will destroy any real reforms and anyone who dares propose them. The only available process of radical downsizing /rationalization is collapse. 

I don't blame anyone for trying to save their job, division or agency; but the systemic cost of protecting privileges, bureaucracies and cartels is collapse.

But labor isn't the only thing that's in surplus--so is capital. That's why the yield on capital is near-zero or below zero. This has driven money managers to accept extremely dangerous levels of risk to chase yields. That central banks have masked the risk by claiming an omnipotence that cannot exist in the real world has only increased the systemic risks of implosion.

As for the central banks' favored optical distortion device, the stock market--what will drive long-term upside once the market is de-FANGed? Another raft of absurdly overvalued Unicorn stocks?

With risk piling up and yields crashing, there is only downside......

Meanwhile, the engine of distributed wealth creation, people willing to risk their labor and capital on new enterprises, is cratering.

There's no upside to risking everything when the commercial building owner, bank and local / federal government skim whatever you earn to the point that you're losing money every month.

Oh, wait--there is some upside: the black market/cash economy. Those who sidestep the burdens of regulation, litigation and taxes have plenty of upside. But it's all downside for everyone collecting government paychecks and benefits paid with taxes, because the cash economy generates zero income tax revenue and very little in fees.

That only increases the burden being loaded on the tax-donkeys who have no choice but to pay higher taxes and the legitimate businesses getting socked with ever-higher fees and regulatory costs.

The upside is ephemeral, illusory or wishful thinking; the downside is real and lasting.

LIES, DELUSION AND DEBT

"Above all, don't lie to yourself. The man who lies to himself and listens to his own lie comes to a point that he cannot distinguish the truth within him, or around him, and so loses all respect for himself and for others. And having no respect he ceases to love." 

                                 Fyodor Dostoyevsky

The lies we tell ourselves are only exceeded by the lies perpetrated by those controlling the levers of our society.

We've lost respect for ourselves and others, transforming from citizens with obligations to consumers with desires. The love of mammon has left our country a hollowed out, debt ridden shell of what it once was. 

By falling for the false materialistic narrative of having it all today, millions of Americans have enslaved themselves in trillions of debt. 

The totals are breathtaking to behold:

Total mortgage debt – $13.6 trillion ($9.9 trillion residential)
Total credit card debt – $924 billion
Total auto loan debt – $1.0 trillion
Total student loan debt – $1.3 trillion
Other consumer debt – $300 billion

The masses have been lied to by bankers and their mass media mouthpieces, while willfully buying into the lie of living for today and funding it with debt. An entire society bought into the fallacy that a country could transition from savings and investment to borrowing and consuming, with no adverse consequences. 

The mass delusion is clearly evident in the comparative consumer debt data from 1971:

US population in 1971 – 208 million
Total credit card debt 1971 – $8.5 billion ($41 per capita)
Total auto loan debt 1971 – $40.5 billion ($195 per capita)

US population in 2015 – 320 million
Total credit card debt 2015 – $890 billion ($2,781 per capita)
Total auto loan debt 2015 – $1.03 trillion ($3,219 per capita)

The population of the US has grown by 54% since 1971, but the amount of credit card debt per person has grown by 6,782%, and the amount of auto loan debt has grown by 1,650%. Meanwhile, real median household income has grown by 8% since 1971. Replacing income with debt in order to give the appearance of wealth is nothing but a lie.

It requires an ever larger amount of debt to generate an additional dollar of GDP. The exponential increase in debt became unsustainable and the Wall Street lies resulted in a global conflagration in 2008. The desperate effort by the Fed to re-inflate the debt bubble through ZIRP and QE has resulted in pathetic economic growth, while leaving willfully ignorant consumers with a record level of debt.

Americans are embarrassed and ashamed by their levels of consumer debt, but they can't stop.

Appearances are all that seem to matter in our society today.

The Fed's master plan to revive the economy with massive doses of debt has failed.

There is no avoiding a collapse brought on by decades of warped monetary and fiscal policies, and irrational behavior by bankers, corporations and consumers. 

It's far too painful to deal with reality, so we ignore it!

We have a broad and heavy bias away from unpleasant data. We are ready to be manipulated by vested interests in finance, economics, and climate change, whose interests might be better served by our believing optimistic stuff 'that just ain't so.

At this point in time it is necessary to our survival that we become more realistic, more willing to process the unpleasant, and, above all, less easily manipulated through our need for good news.

Seven years of zero rates, massive monetary inflation and incessant market backstopping have desensitized and anesthetized. Rational thought ultimately succumbed to "perpetual money machine" quackery. And now all of this greatly increases vulnerability to destabilizing market dislocations, as senses are restored and nerves awakened. A lot of this looks like late 2007 or early 2008, but today, market mispricing is systemic and global – virtually all securities classes at home and abroad.

A 20-Year-Old Perversion In The Stock Market Is Ending. We are entering a new regime of slowly rising rates and a stronger dollar, what worked the last 30 years is unlikely to be leadership in the new regime.

The American middle class is getting poorer. Wages have been stagnant for decades - if jobs can be found to get those wages. Jobs are exported overseas by big corporations. Small businesses get harassed with taxes and big government red tape. There are bailouts to central bankers to the tune of trillions while Main Street businesses go bankrupt. Endless QEs have propped up 'their' stock market, largely owned by the 1 percent. The rich are getting fabulously richer while a record number of people are on food stamps.
 
The Federal Reserve is the heart of darkness. They're a private group of elites who get to print up money for themselves and their cronies while their mainstream media tells everyone it's all fine and dandy. 

They get richer and more powerful while the middle class gets the debt and abuse. The middle class has one foot in the grave and the other foot on a banana peel, thanks to our corrupt and dysfunctional system of money. Central bankers won't have answers for what ails global markets.

It's time to end the Federal Reserve. It's time to shut down the IRS. It's time to end crony capitalism, which is leading us deeper into fascism.

Our country has gone mad over the last few decades! 

We had a chance to come to our senses in 2008, wipe away the debt, liquidate the criminal Wall Street banks, prosecute the perpetrators, and reorient our economy and society back to one built upon savings and investment, rather than borrowing and consumption. It was not to be, as Bernanke and the Deep State decided their best interests trumped the interests of the people. The coming collapse may finally put an end not only to the American dream, but to America.


Looking back, after the coming crash, it will be obvious that it should have been crystal clear, completely obvious to any thinking person, that we had really big problems.

In fact, all great financial bubbles have watershed moments that in many ways signify the height of lunacy, and most miss them all, until it is too late.

There are a lot of flashing warning signs right now that the system is quickly running out of steam.

It's pretty clear that there's an incredible amount of risk in the system, probably more than at any other point in history.

Central banks have printed so many trillions of dollars that there's hardly anything that makes sense in the financial system anymore.

This is not a consequence-free environment…

And in the future when we look back and say, "It should have been so obvious," we will all feel like the fools that we are, as we struggle to survive amid the confusion and chaos that is coming.