THIS COULD BE THE CATALYST THAT TIPS THE ENTIRE ROTTEN APPLE CART OVER! IT WILL BE THE END GAME FOR NOT ONLY GREECE, BUT THE EURO AND THE ON GOING CENTRAL BANK INSANITY, IF THIS DOES NOT GET WORKED OUT.
IS THIS THE MOMENT OF FAILURE OR DO WE HAVE ANOTHER TEMPORARY PATCH JOB COMING? ALL THE PATCHES WON'T HOLD MUCH LONGER....THE PEASANTS ARE RESTLESS AND VERY WORRIED, THAT'S WHY THEIR TAKING THEIR MONEY OUT OF GREEK BANKS...CYPRUS WAS A PROBLEM, GREECE IS A DISASTER WAITING TO INFECT THE ENTIRE FINANCIAL LANDSCAPE.
I BET THEIR ARE A LOT OF VERY NERVOUS BANKERS AROUND THE WORLD, THIS IS A STOMACH CHURNING EVENT FOR THOSE IN HIGH FINANCE. THEY ALL KNOW THEY ARE ABOUT TO GET WHAT THEY DESERVE.
Amid accelerating deposit outflows and an hourly flow of conflicting headlines,Deutsche Bank is out with a fresh take on the Greek endgame including an analysis of both the political wrangling that would need to take place in order for parliamentary approval of concessions to creditors and the mechanics of a default to the IMF.
There is a 40% chance that Greece simply doesn't pay the IMF next month triggering, at the very least, restrictions on ELA access and, in short order, capital controls as withdrawals could accelerate and (literally) break the bank within "a matter of days."
Alternatively, there's a 30% chance that a deal is reached but proves so politically contentious that its provisions can't be approved in time, making a payment to the IMF logistically impossible and putting the ECB in the rather unpalatable position of having to decide how lenient it wants to be based on the central bank's perception of ratification progress which, incidentally, is essentially the same position Mario Draghi has been in for quite sometime only next month, creditors stop getting paid.
And just in case there were any lingering doubts about where talks are headed or about whether the IMF will be willing to compromise on either pension reform or its demands for the EU to writedown Greek debt in order to make the country's debt-to-GDP ratio more 'sustainable', we'll close with the following three headlines that hit the wires this morning:
GREECE SAID TO BE FAR APART WITH CREDITORS ON DEBT TALKS
IMF SAID TO INSIST ON GREEK REFORMS INCLUDING PENSION CHANGES
IMF SAID TO BELIEVE DEBT RELIEF FOR GREECE MAY BE NECESSARY