Friday, May 29, 2015

Why Is No One Talking About Recession?........A MUST READ!

Why Is No One Talking About Recession?

It's an odd conspiracy of mainstream silence.

And yet — it does seem odd that not a single Wall Street economist is worried the U.S. is in, or is near, a recession. DON'T WORRY, THE FED WILL SAVE US! 

A check of recent reports found the word "recession" was absent in every report. 

The Atlanta Fed has constructed something called a "nowcast" — basically, an estimate of GDP growth just based on incoming economic data. The latest update to reflect Wednesday's data on construction spending puts the nowcast at exactly zero. And still, the R-word isn't escaping anyone's lips.  EVEN WITH THE FED'S TRILLIONS WERE AT ZERO! BUT DON'T WORRY THE FED HAS THINGS UNDER CONTROL.

Sure, there are good reasons why the U.S. economy could rebound in the second quarter and throughout the year. In the last five recessions, consumer sentiment started falling beforehand; it's rising now, thanks to steady jobs growth and falling gasoline prices. There have been some positive signals out of the housing market, depending on how much faith you put in numbers ahead of the spring buying season. And there are signals that, at least at the lower end of the jobs market, raises are starting to come through.

But at the very least, there are a lot of reasons why the U.S. economy won't rebound. What's going to suddenly turn business investment around, particularly when a major industry (energy) is still in the early stages of responding to a calamitous oversupply? Moreover, it's rare for recoveries, really Fed rescues, as tepid as this one has been, to last as long as this one.

It seems really odd that there isn't a discussion about the economic elephant in the room. A NATION IN DENIAL!


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