Wednesday, August 12, 2015

GLOBAL MARKETS IN TURMOIL, NEAR CHAOS.......

GLOBAL MARKETS IN TURMOIL, NEAR CHAOS

MARKETS ARE STILL ORDERLY BUT NEARER TO PANIC WITH EACH UNEXPECTED EVENT. 

China Currency War Contagion Spills Out, Leads To Global Bloodbath

Overnight the world realized that there is much more devaluation to come.  DEFLATION!

Global Markets Turmoil After China Extends Currency War To 2nd Day - Devalues Yuan To 4 Year Lows

Despite claiming yesterday's devaluation was a "one-off", The PBOC has devalued the Yuan Fix dramatically for the 2nd day in a row - now 22 handles weaker than Monday's Fix. Offshore Yuan is trading at 4 year lows against the USD. The carnage from this dramatic shift is just beginning as global equity markets (US futures to China cash) are tumbling, US Treasury bond yields are crashing, gold is up, China credit risk is at 2 year highs, and China implied vol has exploded to 4 year highs. Ironically, China's government mouthpeiece Xinhua explains "China is not waging a currency war; merely fixing a discrepancy."

Italian Bond Futures Flash-Crash Into Close


Fat-Finger, Flash-Crash, or Forced Liquidation... either way, something broke in the Italian bond futures market...

Blood On The European Streets As EUR-Yuan Carry Unwinds Crush Stocks

EURCNH was among the most popular carry trades - a stable long leg and central bank sponsored weakness in the sell leg. That is why, now that The PBOC has peed in the punchbowl, all that easy money carry has been forced to unwind as volatility forces traders to buy EUR and sell CNH en masse, shuttering the carry-funded trades as they go. No where is that more clearly visible than the plunge in European stocks.

DAX Crashes After Germany Warns Greek Bailout "Insufficient"

With the Greek bailout deal now nearly done, all that stands in the way of disbursal is the Greek parliamnent and a predictably incalcitrant Germany which, according to Bild (citing EU sources) has now determined that the new bailout plan is "insufficient."

Dollar Tumbles As Fed Rate Hike Suddenly Looking Very Uncertain To Goldman, Bank Of America

After China's shocking currency devaluation, which some more conspiratorially-minded observers have concluded was China's retaliation to the west for the IMF's recent snub that pushed back China's evaluation for inclusion into the SDR to some indefinite point in 2016, the only question on everyone's mind is whether the Fed will delay or outright cancel any imminent "data-dependent" rate hikes as a result of the implicit tightening of monetary conditions thanks to China, and the dramatic appreciation of the USD which would not have taken place without China.

Dow Gives Up Post-QE3 Gains, S&P Breaks Below Key Technical Support

The S&P 500 has once again broken, rather aggressively, below its 200-day moving average and is headed close to unchanged for 2015. The Dow has tumbled 1200 points from its highs and has now broken below the level at the end of QE3... we are gonna need a bigger Fed Balance Sheet...

10 Year Yields Plunge: A Very Confused Wall Street Tries To Predict What Happens Next

There was some serious fireworks in the Treasury market overnight, and especially just before the PBOC decided to intervene in the market not once but twice to undo at least some of the devaluation it caused earlier in the trading session. In fact, at one point the yield on the 10Y tumbled as low at 2.05% before levitating higher courtesy of Beijing (which may well have dumped some TSYs just at that moment to prop up the CNY), even as across the pond Germany's 2 Year bond dropped to a fresh record low. So what happens next? Well, it's not like the sellside is very useful in actually providing actionable advice when something not in the script happens.

Rotten Apple: Former Leader Breaking Down

When AAPL is moving higher, it can mask a lot of problems in the broader market. Unfortunately for bulls, AAPL is beginning to crack. It began on the day of the July post when it got crushed following its earnings release. It has since broken down more, recently dropping below its post-2009 UP trendline... "no brainer"

Gold & Silver Surge As Dollar Dumps

Just 3 weeks after the world could not purge itself fast enough of 'pet rocks', Gold is pushing to one-month highs this morning (at $1120) and Silver just broke a key technical level at its 50-day moving average as USD weakness and global turmoil have seen Precious metals gain for the last few days...

The Fed Is Out Of Options, "QE Is All It Can Do Here"

"...they're in a kind of silly loop where they did QE expecting a reaction... didn't get it.. and then they did QE again because it didn't live up to their expectations... but I think they have no other options, if things get negative on the economy, QE is all they can do."

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