Wednesday, September 30, 2015

What Recovery? 9.4 Million More Americans Below Poverty Line Than Pre-Crisis.....ANOTHER PESKY FACT!

What Recovery? 9.4 Million More Americans Below Poverty Line Than Pre-Crisis

Despite the Fed continuing to kick this down the road, they continue to claim that we are in the middle of an ongoing recovery. There's just one problem with that: things are getting worse than pre-crisis levels for millions of Americans. Possibly even more concerning is the fact that the amount of Americans living below the poverty line has soared since 2007.

Seven years later, and we are starting to see the fruits of this experiment especially in terms of wealth inequality. Studies and economists are starting to sound off, noting that QE and ZIRP have been a failure.


Global 'Wealth' Destruction .......ANOTHER PESKY FACT!

Global 'Wealth' Destruction  

World Market Cap Plunges $13 Trillion To 2 Year Lows. Since the start of June, global equity markets have lost over $13 trillion.

World market capitalization has fallen back below $60 trillion for the first time since February 2014 as it appears the world's central planners' print-or-die policy to create wealth (and in some magical thinking - economic growth) has failed - and failed dramatically. To rub more salt in the wounds of monetray policy mumbo-jumbo, despite endless rate cuts and balance sheet expansion around the world, the last 4 months have seen an 18% collapse - the largest since Lehman.

What worked in the post-global financial meltdown era of 2008-2014 will not work the same magic in the next seven years.

Gold: "The More Ridiculous The System Gets, The More Valuable It Becomes"

This system is pure insanity, as are its prices... it wouldn't bother us if the price of gold went negative(after all, we're not trading paper currency for gold, just to trade it back for more paper currency if the 'price' goes up). The idea behind buying gold is to swap paper money for something real. Banks can rig its 'price' all they want; gold's true value comes from its function as a long-term form of savings and a hedge against a broken financial system. And the more ridiculous the system gets, the more valuable it becomes.

The Fed was late to prevent the popping of the last two bubbles, and it's already too late to stop the popping of this one.  The Fed is consistently behind on the timing of when to reintroduce stimulus because its only choice to deal with the bubble it's created is let it crash, or blow it up even bigger which would result in an even harder landing.

The elite want a one world government, a one world economic system and a one world religion. But they are not going to achieve these things by conquest. Rather, they want everyone to sign up for these new systems willingly. The "global goals" are a template for a united world. To many, the "utopia" that the elite are promising sounds quite promising, many of the "global goals" sound quite good. The key is to look behind the language and understand what is really being said.  And what is really being said is that the elite want to take their dream of a one world system to the next level now whether you like it or not.

Global stock markets posted their worst quarter in four years. Weakness began with China's "Black Monday" in late August and persisted over the next three months. Of the majors, China's Shanghai Composite crashed 28.6%, Germany's DAX tumbled 12.2% and Britain's FTSE fell 7.7%. In the US, the Dow is down 8.9% with one full trading day to go.

Deutsche Bank – the New Lehman Brothers?............ANOTHER PESKY FACT!

Deutsche Bank – the New Lehman Brothers?

The rumor mill has been nonstop. The crushing blow to Europe will be the failure of Germany's biggest bank: Deutsche Bank. Just about every circle is quietly discussing how the bank is facing bankruptcy. The rumors have flown since March when Deutsche Bank failed the U.S. regulatory stress test, which was followed by the resignation of its head in June. A collapse of the Deutsche Bank is profound and very likely to impact Europe to the point that everyone behind the curtain is now calling for a new Lehman moment. Sources tied with the Fed's decision not to raise rates fear that they will be seen as the cause of its failure. Germany clearly faces a major shock; if this combines with Volkswagen for the turning point, well, here we go again.

The potential financial chaos is 
just mind numbing. Since Germany has been regarded as the primary driving force holding the euro and Europe together, one can only close their eyes to vision what comes in the aftermath. So pay attention here. 

These are critical indications within the core economy of Europe. We are not talking about Greece here. The structure of the euro undermined the entire banking system of Europe far more profoundly than in the United States, where reserves are only in U.S. federal debt, not the debt of all 50 member states. This is the major difference between European banking and U.S. banking.

Investment Grade Credit Spreads .....ANOTHER PESKY FACT!


Investment Grade Credit Spreads

During the past few years by far the most important of all factors driving the market was the low-cost financing of float-reduction (buying back shares via releveraging)...

Investment Grade credit spreads are at 2-year wides, spiking higher in recent days, raising the cost of financing those record-breaking non-economic buybacks for even the most pugnacious CFO. As is clear below, with a lag (i.e. we borrow and then we spend) the cost of financing and the relative performance of firms buying back their shares is extremely highly correlated and while correlation is not causation, we suspect in this case - from simple Corporate Finance theory - it is winking rather clearly. THE CHART CLEARLY INDICATES THAT YOU DON'T EVER GET SOMETHING FOR NOTHING, DESPITE ALL THE EMPTY PROMISES TO THE CONTRARY, THERE IS NO FREE LUNCH! THERE IS NO RECOVERY EITHER AND MOST ASSETS ARE CURRENTLY WAY OVER PRICED! IT IS AND HAS BEEN A FED INDUCED MIRAGE, PERIOD!


America's "Lumbering" Economy......ANOTHER PESKY FACT!


America's "Lumbering" Economy

While crude and copper have been christened the great economic forecasters of our time, the data shows that there is another, more highly correlated, commodity to the economic cycle. Lumber prices are the most correlated with ISM and GDP of all industrial commodities and that is a problem...

First, Lumber prices have collapsed to 4 year lows. The 33% Year-over-year plunge is the biggest since the financial crisis and is flashing a big red recession alarm...




Second, Lumber prices have historically led stocks and are pointing to significant downside from here...




Third, it appears lumber's decline points to notable downside for manufacturing...


IPOs......ANOTHER PESKY FACT!


IPOs ...  worst year since Lehman


Biotechs.......ANOTHER PESKY FACT!


Biotechs have imploded...


OUR PRESIDENT SHOULD TAKE A WALK.......A SHORT VIDEO CLIP

OUR PRESIDENT SHOULD TAKE A WALK

SO SHOULD MOST AMERICANS........ 

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Market teeters on major technical support.............

Market teeters on major technical support


The S&P 500 is challenging major technical support, and vulnerable to a potentially material incremental leg lower. As illustrated, the S&P has extended its downturn, plunging to major support.










Similarly, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has reached a major technical test. Consider that the September low rests at 15,980, and the index bottomed Monday at 15,981.



.

And the Nasdaq Composite  has plunged to one-month lows punctuating a failed test of resistance.






Technically, the market backdrop remains firmly bearish, and the major benchmarks are vulnerable to potentially material incremental losses.


The Echo Bubble In Housing Is About To Pop.....DO NOT MISS THIS!

The Echo Bubble In Housing Is About To Pop

The knife in the heart of the Echo Housing bubble: declining household income.

The Federal Reserve-induced Echo Housing Bubble is finally starting to roll over, and the bubble's pop won't be pretty. 

Why is the bubble finally popping now?

All the factors that inflated the Echo Housing bubble are running dry. 

These include:

-- unprecedented low mortgage rates

-- FHA mortgage approvals for anyone who fogs a mirror

-- frantic cash buying by Chinese millionaires desperate to get their money out of China

-- the Federal Reserve buying up trillions of dollars in mortgages

-- lemming-like buying of housing for rentals by everyone from Mom and Pop to huge hedge funds.

The well's gone dry, folks. There isn't going to be another push higher or a third housing bubble after this one pops.

Let's start with the basics: demographic demand for housing and the price of housing. There are plenty of young people who'd like to buy a house and start a family (a.k.a. new household formation), but few have the job or income to buy a house at today's nosebleed level--a level just slightly less insane than the prices at the top of Bubble #1.



It's considered bad form to describe today's prices as insane. It tends to hurt the feelings of everyone who's counting on the Echo Bubble to 1) make them even richer or 2) bail them out of the hole they fell into after Housing Bubble #1 popped.

Exhibit B is the insanely low mortgage rate, which has finally reversed course and is notching higher after 30 years of going lower. Why are today's rates insane? Risk. Mortgages are intrinsically risky. People who are terrific credit risks lose their jobs, experience horrendous medical crises, get divorced, etc., and the net result is a default that is unexpected.

Then there's all the credit-rating-of-501 crowd that was always one missed paycheck away from defaulting on their FHA/VA mortgage. Once the layoffs begin scything through Corporate America and struggling small businesses, those living paycheck to paycheck buyers of Echo Bubble housing will have no choice but jingle mail the keys to the bank.

Though they may still be drooling from the smack-like high of get-rich-quick fantasies, anyone buying rental housing at these prices is on the cusp of discovering a very painful reality: few can make money buying rental property at these prices, not once rents plummet as the global recession comes home to roost.



If we look at the ratio of mortgage debt to household income, the current level is still double the pre-financialization level. A slight decline from the insane levels of the bubble mania do not qualify as sane.



The Fed goosed the Echo Bubble by buying up an insane $1.75 trillion in mortgages, almost 20% of the entire mortgage market in the U.S. The Fed has kept buying mortgages to maintain this level, but the Fed is no longer expanding their mortgage holdings. That well has run dry.



And here's the knife in the heart of the Echo Housing bubble: household income-- stagnating for decades for 90% of households--has declined since the Bubble Top when adjusted for inflation. 

Please explain how declining real income can support nosebleed home prices now that mortgage rates have bottomed and started their inevitable rise from absurdly low levels.



If you want to believe the Echo Bubble can continue inflating, by all means take another hit of happy-housing-talk smack. But let me warn you--the high wears off.

THE TRUTH ABOUT HOUSING..........DO NOT MISS THIS!

THE TRUTH ABOUT HOUSING

The entire engineered "housing recovery" has had a suspicious smell to it all along. 

The true bottom occurred in 2009 with an annual rate of 4 million existing home sales. An artificial bottom of 3.5 million occurred in 2010 after the expiration of the Keynesian first time home buyer credit that lured more dupes into the market. The current rate of 5.31 million is at 2007 crash levels and on par with 2001 recession levels. 

Real median household income is still 6.5% BELOW 2007 levels, 7.3% BELOW 2000 levels, and about equal to 1989 levels, the only way the ruling class could manufacture a fake recovery is by ramping up the printing presses and reigniting a housing bubble.


With mortgage rates at record low levels for five years, this is all we got?

https://confoundedinterest.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/ehs092115.png

What really smells is the number of actual mortgage originations that have supposedly driven this 35% increase in existing home sales. If existing home sales are at 2007 levels, how could mortgage purchase applications be 55% below 2007 levels? If existing home sales are up 35% from the 2009/2010 lows, how could mortgage purchase applications be flat since 2010?

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New home sales are up 80% from the 2010 lows, but before you get excited, understand that new home sales are still 60% BELOW the 2005 high and 25% below the 1990 through 2000 average. So, in total, there are 1.5 million more annual home sales today than at the bottom in 2010. But mortgage originations haven't budged.



The median price for a new home far exceeds the bubble highs of 2005. A critical thinking individual might wonder how new home sales could be down 60% from 2005, while home prices are 15% higher than they were in 2005. Don't the laws of supply and demand work anymore? The identical trend can be seen in the existing homes sales market. The median price for existing home sales of $228,700 is an all-time high, exceeding the 2005 bubble levels. Again, sales are down 30% since 2005. 

I wonder who is responsible for this warped chain of events, this gargantuan lie that most have bought into?

You guessed it – the Federal Reserve. 

There is no doubt these Wall Street captured academics with their models, theories, formulas, and Keynesian beliefs have created another immense bubble that endangers a global financial system already teetering on the brink of collapse due to central bank shenanigans by EU, Japanese, and Chinese central bankers. QE and ZIRP have encouraged rampant gambling by amoral greed driven financial institutions.

The Wall Street debt machine is running out of financially able customers, so they've ramped up subprime lending at the worst possible time, because they don't have a real solution!



The table is set for the next, much larger and more destructive 
financial crisis. 

The apologists for the warped ideology that has resulted in $10 trillion of additional debt being layered on the original un-payable $52 trillion, argue subprime lending is lower than the 2008 peak, so all is well. They fail to realize the system is far more fragileand will collapse once the next Lehman moment arrives. 

The country is already in, or headed into recession. All economic indicators are flashing red. The stock market has fallen over 10% in the last month. Virtually every new car owner you see driving that fancy BMW, Lexus, or Volvo is underwater on their auto loan. Home price growth has stalled at record levels. Mortgage rates are poised to rise from record lows. We all know what happens next.






It’s Not If But When............DO NOT MISS THIS!

It's Not If But When

Since the 2008 crash there has been much talk about how the fundamentals have not been dealt with and the fact that the can has only been kicked down the road. Political mavericks and commentators have frequently pointed out that nothing has really changed and that we are heading for even bigger disasters ahead if we continue to ignore reality.

A few economic pundits have been banging the drum for an unprecedented collapse that will make the 1929 western economic slump look like a tea party. 

I'm sure that some people are probably wondering if these people are just carpet baggers, making a swift buck out of fear of an economic downturn. The truth is that we never left the economic downturn – we are currently in a period of manipulation that's sole purpose is to mask the fact that there has not been a boom (or recovery if you like) to trigger the next bust.

The world economy is largely sustained by confidence and belief that pieces of paper (or digital records) have some inherent value relative to each other and relative to the physical realities of the world. In truth a paper note is worthless if people do not recognise its symbolic value or believe that the relationship between its value and the value of real-world objects (e.g. commodities) has been perverted or destroyed.

Of course, a carrot takes a similar amount of soil, water, sunlight and care to grow in California as it does in China or anywhere else, but in our insane financial system the relative value of the same carrot is vastly different in different places. Furthermore, if carrots are traded virtually on exchanges around the world the value of carrots becomes further removed again from its original value as a food items that requires a finite amount of resources to produce.

The value attributed to almost everything does not actually bear scrutiny, as the relationship between things and their value seems to be entirely arbitrary at this moment in time. Because this is the case, few people recognise the fact that the value of virtually everything is manipulated by both corporations and by governments. 

Currently the idea that there is such a thing as a Free Market, that the laws of supply and demand dictate the value of items is now nonsense. 

While economists still spout the usual crap that they were taught at university and everyone in the corporate and governmental sectors play lip-service to established economic norms, the truth is that interventions are constant, albeit mostly covert.

While it is possible to manipulate the stock markets, the value of commodities and the value of currencies, then it will continue until it is no longer possible. This manipulation was always possible, but back in the days of stand-alone computer systems and trading tickets this was more difficult to achieve. Since the micro-processor revolution of the 1980's financial markets have become computerised and now, thanks to open systems technology, everything can be connected to everything else. The technological revolution in finance has enabled the number of transactions to expand across the globe, but it has also vastly expanded the capacity for cheating – manipulation of prices.

All of the financial systems around the world are run by software, this may collect data feeds and present them in a coherent form, but software also enables data to be changed, sometimes explicitly through statistical analysis or by downright cheating. Obviously neither corporations or governments wish to admit to fixing figures, to precipitating rises and falls in currency, interest rates etc. through cheating – but in truth this is exactly what happens.

Even when they openly make adjustments (e.g. raising interest rates) the data used to justify such actions has been cooked up to fit the decision, rather than the decision being a reflection of underlying trends in the data. Data is statistically manipulated – through exclusion of unwanted inputs, skewing of the data, adjustment by a multitude of factors (e.g. seasonal) all of which is really a legitimised form of cheating.

Most people have no understanding of financial matters and even less understanding of how statistics can be used to change a data set to make the data say what you want, rather than interpreting it without bias. 

As a result of constant manipulation, both governments and corporations manage to convince themselves and the public at large that everything is ok, or very shortly will be ok.

So, in short, despite the fact that the world economy is really doing very poorly
, we are not going to hear the truth until things are so bad that a statistical genius is unable to hide it. 

While confidence can be maintained the game will continue, with the average man in the street blissfully unaware that it is only trickery that prevents a total economic landslide.

The financial commentators I mentioned earlier are all aware of how the game works, however their predictions have been inaccurate so far because they failed to see the depth of the manipulation in play. It's obvious that markets will eventually collapse, that economies will spin out of control, but in the meantime both governments and corporations will do everything they can to make everyone believe that the Emperor is indeed wearing clothes.

I'm not going to predict when a collapse is coming. I can see a gearing up for deeper financial, political and possibly military war between USA/EU against the BRICS nations, which could be the straw that breaks the camel's back. However, like everyone else, who is not party to advance knowledge of the trigger mechanism, I'm just going to have to wait it out and prepare for the worst.

A crash could be started deliberately, as has happened before, which will be preceded by quick exit of the smart money into physical assets. I'd say that this scenario is highly likely, but that does not mean that some kind of perfect storm event will not blindside the movers and shakers and precipitate a crash despite everyone's best efforts to maintain confidence.

As I said at the beginning, none of the fundamentals have improved. If anything the financial, environmental and social fundamentals of human society seem to have deteriorated further since 2008.  

All the evidence available, if interpreted honestly, points towards another even deeper and more traumatic recession in the not to distant future.

I get on with my life without being fearful. However, I have made steps and continue to make further steps to ensure that when the inevitable crash does come its impact on my life will be as small as possible. I would advise anyone else who has not begun this process to begin immediately as it really is a case of - how long do we have left?

Carl Icahn Says Market "Way Overpriced"...........It's very dangerous and could be disastrous!

Carl Icahn Says Market "Way Overpriced"

Carl Icahn says the Fed is blowing it. 

Activist investor Carl Icahn released a new video titled "Danger Ahead," which warns that trouble is coming to the financial markets. Icahn believes the Fed got the US economy into this mess and that its zero-interest-rate policy has created an "earnings mirage." 

Icahn says companies are simply buying other companies to create the perception of growing earnings and that a lot of companies are buying back stock that shouldn't be. "A buyback is a short-term fix," Icahn said. "But it weakens the balance sheet."

Icahn offers a very straightforward and chilling summary of what he believes to be an unsustainable and fragile set of circumstances that are propping up the stock market. And in the end we're left wondering whether we could repeat what we saw during the financial crisis. Or worse. The core problem is the Federal Reserve and its ultra-easy, zero-interest-rate policy.

To be sure, no one ever accused Carl Icahn of being shy and earlier this year he had a very candid sitdown with Larry Fink  whom Icahn leveled quite a bit of sharp (if good natured) criticism related to BlackRock's role in creating the conditions that could end up conspiring to cause a meltdown in illiquid corporate credit markets. 

Over the course of the video, Icahn lays out his concerns about many of the issues I've been warning about for years and while none of what he says will come as a surprise the video, called "Danger Ahead", is probably worth your time as it does a fairly good job of summarizing how the various risk factors work to reinforce one another on the way to setting the stage for a meltdown. 

Here's a list of Icahn's concerns:

Low rates and asset bubbles: Fed policy in the wake of the dot com collapse helped fuel the housing bubble and given what we know about how monetary policy is affecting the financial cycle (i.e. creating larger and larger booms and busts) we might fairly say that the Fed has become the bubble blower extraordinaire. 

Herding behavior: The quest for yield is pushing investors into risk in a frantic hunt for yield in an environment where risk free assets yield at best an inflation adjusted zero and at worst have a negative carrying cost.

Financial engineering: Icahn is supposedly concerned about the myopia displayed by corporate management teams who are of course issuing massive amounts of debt to fund EPS-inflating buybacks as well as M&A. We have of course been warning about debt fueled buybacks all year and make no mistake, there's something a bit ironic about Carl Icahn criticizing companies for short-term thinking and buybacks as he hasn't exactly been quiet about his opinion with regard to Apple's buyback program (he does add that healthy companies with lots of cash should repurchases shares).

Fake earnings: Companies are being deceptive about their bottom lines.

Ineffective leadership: Congress has demonstrated a remarkable inability to do what it was elected to do (i.e. legislate). To fix this we need someone in The White House who can help break intractable legislative stalemates.

Corporate taxes are too high: Inversions are costing the US jobs.

Here's more from Reuters:

Billionaire investor activist Carl Icahn ramped up criticism of the U.S. Federal Reserve, warning about the unintended consequences of ultra low interest rates on the economy and financial markets.

"They don't understand the treacherous path they are going down," Icahn said in an interview with Reuters, in which he also declared his support for Donald Trump as a candidate to be the next U.S. president.

"God knows where this is going. It's very dangerous and could be disastrous," said Icahn, who has been a consistent critic of the Fed for keeping its benchmark interest rate close to zero since late 2008.

Icahn said he felt compelled to raise red flags about the state of the financial markets because he believes if more big investors had warned about subprime mortgage market in 2007, the United States might have avoided the crisis that strangled the economy the following year.

In a video entitled "Danger Ahead" and released on Tuesday, Icahn said the Fed's rate policy had enabled U.S. chief executives - many of whom he describes as "nice but mediocre guys" – to pursue "financial engineering" that he said has exacerbated an already wide gap between rich and poor in America.

Icahn, who slammed money managers who benefit from the so-called "carried interest" loophole under which their earnings are taxed as capital gains rather than ordinary wage income, also endorsed Donald Trump's presidential bid.

Trump unveiled a tax plan on Monday that he said would eliminate the loophole.

"Those guys who run these companies are borrowing money very cheaply, leveraging up their companies, using it to do two things … They are going in and they are buying back stock or even worse, making stupid takeovers," said Icahn, adding some recent acquisitions have been done at a too high a price.

Much of this debt is bought via exchange-traded funds, a popular vehicle for trading baskets of bonds and stocks.

Icahn said retail investors had a false sense of security about how easy it would be to sell their holdings of such debt if the market turns.

"It's like a movie theater and somebody yells fire. There is only one little exit door," he said. "The exit door is fine when things are OK but when they yell fire, they can't get through the exit door … and there's nobody to buy those junk bonds."

Ultimately what Icahn has done is put the pieces together for anyone who might have been struggling to understand how it all fits together and how the multiple dynamics at play serve to feed off one another to pyramid risk on top of risk. Put differently: one more very "serious" person is now shouting about any just how dangerous the current environment is.


Monday, September 28, 2015

Evidence Of The Fed's "Third Mandate"...........

Evidence Of The Fed's "Third Mandate"

If there's one lesson the world's central planners should have learned by now, it's that using monetary policy to micromanage economic outcomes leads directly to crises. 

Make no mistake, that's not some theory that can be written off as a one-line rant by an angry sound money advocate. It's a demonstrable fact, and the truly scary thing about it is that not only do central bankers steadfastly refuse to understand it, they ardently believe the exact opposite to be true. 

Indeed, the headlong plunge into unconventional monetary policy in the wake of the financial crisis quiteclearly indicated that Ben Bernanke either did not understand, or more likely, understood fully and just didn't care, that the Greenspan Fed played an outsized role in creating the conditions that led directly to the housing bubble.

The problem with rushing to combat any sign of economic or financial market turmoil by resorting immediately to counter-cyclical policies is that the creative destruction that would normally serve to purge speculative excess isn't allowed to operate and so, misallocated capital is allowed to linger from crisis to crisis, making the next boom and subsequent bust even larger than the last. 

This is one of the most important dynamics to understand when seeking to explain why the past two decades have seen the world careen from one crisis right into another and then into another with each one more terrifying than the last. 

For those who need proof of the above, we present the following chart from RBS which shows that even if one wants to argue that Keynesian tinkering can manage to slightly smooth out the business cycle (and trust us, the jury is still out on that), what it most certainly cannot do is smooth out financial cycles (defined by the IMF as "self-reinforcing interactions between perceptions of value and risk, attitudes towards risk and financing constraints, which translate into booms followed by busts"). In fact, what the following demonstrates is that central bankers are actually engineering huge booms and busts and getting better at it all the time:

We suppose the only saving grace here is that with rates glued to the effective lower bound across developed markets and with central bankers literally running out of monetizable assets, the Keyneisan endgame looks to be just around the corner and when it comes, it will be accompanied by a dramatic readjustment and, we can only hope, the return of some semblance of sanity.

From ZIRP To NIRP - Accelerating The End Of Fiat Currencies.......

From ZIRP To NIRP - Accelerating The End Of Fiat Currencies

What is deeply worrying is the intention to pursue current interest rate policies even beyond a reductio ad absurdum and on top of this idiotic policy they are also considering NIRP.

In considering NIRP, Central bankers are failing to address an even greater potential problem, which could easily become cataclysmic. By forcing people into paying to maintain cash and bank deposits, central bankers are playing fast-and-loose with the public's patient acceptance that state-issued money actually has any value at all. There is a tension between this cavalier macroeconomic attitude and what amounts to a prospective tax on personal liquidity. Furthermore, NIRP makes the hidden tax of monetary inflation, of which the public is generally unaware, suddenly very visible. We should be in no doubt that increasing public awareness of the true cost to ordinary people of monetary policies, by way of the debate that would be created by the introduction of NIRP, could have very dangerous consequences for the currency.

ZIRP = Zero interest-rate policy

NIRP = Negative interest rate policy

The relative stability in the welfare economies appears to be coming to an end. Worryingly for central bankers, with interest rates at the zero bound, their conventional interest rate weapon is out of ammunition. They appear to now believe in only two broad options if a slump is to be avoided: more quantitative easing and NIRP. There is however a market problem with QE, in that it is counterpart to a withdrawal of high quality financial collateral,which raises liquidity issues in the shadow banking system. This leaves NIRP, which central bankers hope will succeed where ZIRP failed.

NIRP is a preposterous concept!

It contravenes the laws of time preference, commanding by diktat that cash is worth less than credit. It forces people into the practical discomfort of treating physical possession of money as worth less than not possessing it. Suddenly, we find ourselves riding the train of macroeconomic fallacies at high speed into the buffers at the end of the line. Of course, some central bankers may sense this, but they are still being compelled towards NIRPthrough lack of other options, in which case holding cash will have to be banned or taxed by one means or another. This would, allow them to force interest rates well below the zero bound and presumably keep them there if necessary.

ARE THEY REALLY THAT STUPID?  THEY ARE DESPERATE AND YES, I THINK THEY ARE THAT STUPID! GREED BLINDS ANYONE AND EVERYONE THAT LOSES SIGHT OF REALITY.

The 'Fed Put' Is Dead.........A MUST READ!

The 'Fed Put' Is Dead

The current surge in dis-inflationary pressures is not just due to the recent fall in oil prices, but rather a global epidemic of slowing economic growth. While Janet Yellen addressed this "disinflationary" wave during her post-meeting press conference, the Fed still maintains the illusion of confidence that economic growth will return shortly. Unfortunately, this has been the Fed's "Unicorn" since 2011 as annual hopes of economic recovery have failed to materialize. However, it is these ongoing views of optimism that have collided with economic realities. HOPE AND OPTIMISM ARE NOT SOLUTIONS!

Yellen's detailed speech initially triggered an out-sized market reaction. Unfortunately, it was mainly due to shallow market depth and weak-hand positions. Yellen's speech should quickly begin to hurt over-priced financial assets. Yellen's speech was the first time I can ever remember a Federal Reserve Chairperson commenting that inappropriate risk-taking might be undermining financial stability. This is explicit confirmation that the Fed's aim of lifting asset prices in the hopes they bolster broader economic activity has reached the end of its useful life. Barring a financial or economic disaster, the 'Fed put' has been put out to pasture.

Going forward, the risk-reward distribution continues to look skewed to the downside. Poor market depth and crowded positions could even cause a meaningful overshoot. Current valuations will likely be challenged further as average operating earnings are already decreasing, and revenue-based valuations currently stand almost 20% above their historical median the next move is likely to be down, perhaps a long way down.

Seven years of easy money has borrowed from the future, indebting many companies and countries globally. The 'new normal' is the best case scenario for the next decade or more.

Bubbles never provide a convenient time to tighten monetary policy. Best practices would require central bankers to tighten early before Bubble Dynamics take firm hold. Central bankers instead nurture and accommodate Bubble excess. It ensures a policy dead end -  the faltering global Bubble has progressed beyond the point where Fed rate policy has much impact.



US On The Ropes: China To Join Russian Military In Syria While Iraq Strikes Intel Deal With Moscow, Tehran........ DO NOT MISS THIS!

THE BOOK OF REVELATION COMING ALIVE AND IN PLAIN VIEW FOR ALL TO SEE!

US On The Ropes: China To Join Russian Military In Syria While Iraq Strikes Intel Deal With Moscow, Tehran


According to the Russian Senator Igor Morozov, Beijing has taken decision to take part in combating ISIS  and sent its vessels to the Syrian coast.

Igor Morozov, member of the Russian Federation Committee on International Affairs said;
 

"It is known, that China has joined our military operation in Syria, the Chinese cruiser has already entered the Mediterranean, aircraft carrier follows it." 

According to him, Iran may soon join the operation carried out by Russia against the ISIS 
terrorists, via Hezbollah.

Russia and Iran have announced a coalition to defend Syrian president Bashar al-Assad at a UN meeting, as the US continues to blame Assad for the country's bloody civil war.

Thus, the Russian coalition in the region gains ground. Although the stance of Moscow and Washington on the ways of settlement of the Syrian conflict differs, none the less, the low efficiency of the US coalition acts against terrorists is obvious. Islamists have just strengthened their positions.

As Leonid Krutakov told Pravda in an interview, the most serious conflict is currently taking place namely between China and the US. 

This will change the world order going forward!

Since 
Beijing has entered the fray, it is entirely consistent with China's position on Syria and also with the PLA's desire to take a more assertive role in international affairs.

Meanwhile, it now looks as though the very same Russian-Iran "nexus" that's playing spoiler in Syria is also set to take over the fight against ISIS in Iraq, as Baghdad has now struck a deal to officially share intelligence with Moscow and Tehran. 

Here's CNN:

Iraq says it has reached a deal to share intelligence with Russia, Iran and Syria in the fight against ISIS militants.

The announcement on Saturday from the Iraqi military cited "the increasing concern from Russia about thousands of Russian terrorists committing criminal acts within ISIS."

The news comes amid U.S. concerns about Russia's recent military buildup in Syria and would appear to confirm American suspicions of some kind of cooperation between Baghdad and Moscow.

The entire narrative is falling apart for the US, as Russia and Iran are now moving to transform the half-hearted Western effort to contain ISIS into a very serious effort to eradicate the group and gain more control of much of the middle east.

Russian, Syrian and Iranian military commanders have set up a coordination cell in Baghdad in recent days to try to begin working with Iranian-backed Shia militias fighting the Islamic State.

Describing the arrival of Russian military personnel in Baghdad, one senior U.S. official said, "They are popping up everywhere."

While the U.S. also is fighting the Islamic State, the Obama administration has voiced concern that Russia's involvement, at least in Syria, could have a destabilizing effect.

Vladimir Putin has exploited both the fight against ISIS and Iran's need to preserve the regional balance of power on the way to enhancing Russia's influence over Mid-East affairs which in turn helps to ensure that Gazprom's interests are protected going forward.

Thanks to the Idiots in Washington and the 
awkward position the US has gotten itself in by covertly allying itself with various Sunni extremist groups, Washington is for all intents and purposes powerless to stop Putin lest the public should sudddenly get wise to the fact that combatting Russia's resurrgence and preventing Iran from expanding its interests are more imporant than fighting terror.

In short, Washington gambled on a dangerous game of geopolitical chess, lost, and now faces two rather terrifyingly disastrous outcomes: 

1) China establishing a presence in the Mid-East in concert with Russia and Iran, and 

2) seeing Iraq effectively ceded to the Quds Force and ultimately, to the Russian army.

IF THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE PAGES OF REVELATION COMING ALIVE NOTHING EVER WILL!


 

The VW Problem Is Much Bigger Than You Think.......... AMAZING!

The VW Problem Is Much Bigger Than You Think

This little graphic below seems to indicate that VW was the least worst of the offenders. And it will be very hard for politicians to find a carpet left big enough to sweep this under. 
Class action lawsuits are being prepared for investors and car owners, and politics doesn't trump courts, at least not everywhere.



Merkel and Hollande and all of their lower level minions will have to cut their losses and offer their carmakers to the vultures, or risk getting severely burned in the process. Or is it already too late? The German Green Party claims Merkel knew of the rigged emissions tests. ARE ANY OF OUR WORLD LEADERS HONEST?

For now, the government is in steep denial:

German Greens Claim Merkel Government Knew Emissions Tests Were Rigged

The German Green party has claimed that the German Government, led by Chancellor Angela Merkel, knew about the software car manufacturers used to rig emissions tests in the US. The Green party has said it asked the German Transport Ministry in July about the devices used to deceive regulators and received a written response as follows, the FT reports: "The federal government is aware of [defeat devices], which have the goal of test cycle detection."

The Transport Ministry denied knowing that the software was being used in new vehicles, however. The timing of the questions has raised concerns over whether the German government knew about the activities at Volkswagen stretching back to 2009. "The federal government admitted in July, to an inquiry from the Greens, that the emissions measurement practice had shortcomings. Nothing happened," said Oliver Krischer, a German Green party lawmaker.

That written response the Financial Times reports on either exists or it does not. Let's see it. Simple. If it does exist, Merkel's in trouble. Then again, the EU knew about the defeat device at least two years ago. It's starting to look as if everyone was involved. And you can't fire everyone.

EU Warned On Devices At Centre Of VW Scandal Two Years Ago

EU officials had warned of the dangers of defeat devices two years before the Volkswagen emissions scandal broke, highlighting Europe's failure to police the car industry. A 2013 report by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre drew attention to the challenges posed by the devices, which are able to skew the results of exhaust readings. But regulators then failed to pursue the issue — despite the fact the technology had been illegal in Europe since 2007. EU officials said they had never specifically looked for such a device themselves and were not aware of any national authority that located one.

Matthias Müller was announced as VW's new head honcho. Now there's a greater fool if ever you saw one. Who can possibly want that gig? His predecessor Winterkorn left the top post, but to date not the one as head of Porsche. Ergo, he presides over those who lead the internal investigation at the company. And even if Winterkorn is bought off and out, VW is still as big of a hornet's nest as you can find. The company's corporate -and legal- structure, which includes unsavory close ties to the governments of both Lower Saxony -which owns 20% of the company, in (highly) preferred stock- and federal Germany, virtually guarantees it.

Nor does it stop there. Both the German and British governments now stand accused of perverting EU law on emissions. The Wall Street Journal asks how much the EU itself knew. Easy answer: plenty. Inevitable. Key words: spin doctors, damage control.

This morning's Bild am Sonntag, which claims to be in the possession of an 'explosive document', reports first that a October 7 deadline has been handed VW by Berlin to 'fix' its problems, and second that engineering giant Bosch, which provided the -initial?!- "defeat device" software, warned VW as long as 8 years ago, in 2007, that the software was for internal testing purposes only. VW's own technicians "warned about illegal emissions practices" in 2011, the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung cites an internal report as saying exactly that.

And that's just the beginning. Or rather, the beginning may have been much earlier. Bloomberg writes, in an article called "Forty Years Of Greenwashing" that "On 23 July 1973, the EPA accused Volkswagen of installing defeat devices in cars it wanted to sell in the 1974 model year."

Sunday, September 27, 2015

PATIENCE.........

PATIENCE




















Patience
P
overty and shame shall be to him that refuseth instruction: but he that regardeth reproof shall be honoured. - Proverbs 13:18
 
A
nd God is able to make all grace abound toward you; that ye, always having all sufficiency in all things, may abound to every good work: - 2 Corinthians 9:8
 
T
he LORD is my rock, and my fortress, and my deliverer; my God, my strength, in whom I will trust; my buckler, and the horn of my salvation, and my high tower. - Psalms 18:2
 
I
n the beginning was the Word, and the Word was with God, and the Word was God. - John 1:1
 
E
very good gift and every perfect gift is from above, and cometh down from the Father of lights, with whom is no variableness, neither shadow of turning. - James 1:17
 
N
ow therefore ye are no more strangers and foreigners, but fellow citizens with the saints, and of the household of God; - Ephesians 2:19
 
C
ome unto me, all ye that labour and are heavy laden, and I will give you rest. - Matthew 11:28
 
E
very day will I bless thee; and I will praise thy name for ever and ever. - Psalms 145:2

God Reigns, Rules, Overrules and Overrides..........

God Reigns, Rules, Overrules and Overrides

"The king's heart is in the hand of the Lord as the rivers of water. He turneth it whithersoever He will."  

                                                                                                                                                              Proverbs 21:1

God can change a ruler, God can remove a ruler, and God can overrule a ruler.

You ask, "Should I pray for my leader if he's wicked?" You ought to pray all the more for him. Why?  

Because the Bible says, 

"I exhort therefore, that first of all, supplications, prayers, intercessions, and giving of thanks be made for all men; for kings and for all that are in authority, that we may lead a quiet and peaceable life, in all godliness and honesty. For this is good and acceptable in the sight of God our Savior."

                                                                                                  
1Timothy 2:1-3

The greatest responsibility in America is not in the White House but in the church house. We're to be aware of the issues and pray God's purpose for our government. Pray for those who are in authority.

Would you pray for America right now? 

You might pray, 

"Oh God, bless America. Lord, we deserve judgment, but we need mercy. Bring this nation, Lord, back to You. Remove our elected officials that don't serve you and replace them with Godly men and women that do. The troubles that we see in our land are tokens of Your love to bring us to our knees. Lord, it's beyond us. God, we need You in America."

God the Rest-Giver..........

God the Rest-Giver

"Come to Me, all who are weary and heavy-laden, and I will give you rest. "Take My yoke upon you, and learn from Me, for I am gentle and humble in heart; and YOU SHALL FIND REST FOR YOUR SOULS. "For My yoke is easy, and My load is light." 

Compare from the Old Testament: ‰ 

Ex 33.14: And He said, "My presence shall go with you, and I will give you rest." ‰ 

Jer 6.16: Thus says the Lord, "Stand by the ways and see and ask for the ancient paths, Where the good way is, and walk in it; And you shall find rest for your souls. ‰ 

Ezek 34.15: "I will feed My flock and I will lead them to rest," declares the Lord God. ‰ 

2 Sam 7.11: and I will give you rest from all your enemies. ‰ 

Deut 5.33: "according to all the way which the Lord your God commanded thee to walk in it, that he may give thee rest…" 

Jer 31.25: For I satisfy the weary ones and refresh everyone who languishes. 

I. Nature of "Rest" in the Bible 

A. Basic idea 

1. "The frequent occurrences of God's promises to give his people "rest" include all of the preceding ideas: a place to land on, a place of serenity, and cessation from effort. But they also include a fourth idea, and that is safety and security. This is made clear by the several references to giving "rest from his/their enemies on every side" (Deut 12:10; 25:19; Josh 23:1; 2 Sam 7:1, 11; 2 Chron 14:7 [6]; Neh 9:28; Esth 9:16, 22; Isa 14:3). The sense is to get, or provide, relief from threat or attack. 

So God not only promises to give his people a place to settle, but he also promises to give them a place of security. It is this latter sense that is operative in the promises to the Transjordanian tribes that they may return to their home territories, once God has given their brothers rest (Deut 3:20; Josh 1:15; 22:4). It is this same idea that occurs in connection with David's and Solomon's decision to build the temple: God has now given them the security and leisure necessary to such an undertaking (e.g., 1 Kgs 5:4 [18]).

2. Gen 8.4 the ark 'rested' on Mt Ararat 

3. Image often used of birds landing in their nests or sheep reaching their pasture.

B. Rest is "from enemies" and "from threats", from "every side" 

1. When you cross the Jordan and live in the land which the Lord your God is giving you to inherit, and He gives you rest from all your enemies around you so that you live in security (Dt 12:10 NASB; cf 25.19) 

2. And the Lord gave them rest on every side, according to all that He had sworn to their fathers, and no one of all their enemies stood before them; the Lord gave all their enemies into their hand. (Jos 21:44, NASB) 

3. Now it came about when the king lived in his house, and the Lord had given him rest on every side from all his enemies, 2 that the king said to Nathan the prophet, "See now, I dwell in a house of cedar, but the ark of God dwells within tent curtains." (2 Sa 7:1; NASB) 

4. Solomon sent back this message to Hiram: 

 "You know that because of the wars waged against my father David from all sides, he could not build a temple for the Name of the LORD his God until the LORD put his enemies under his feet. But now the LORD my God has given me rest on every side, and there is no adversary or disaster. (1 Ki 5:2; NIV). 

5. And Asa did good and right in the sight of the Lord his God, for he removed the foreign altars and high places, tore down the sacred pillars, cut down the Asherim, and commanded Judah to seek the Lord God of their fathers and to observe the law and the commandment. He also removed the high places and the incense altars from all the cities of Judah. And the kingdom was undisturbed under him. 

6 And he built fortified cities in Judah, since the land was undisturbed, and there was no one at war with him during those years, because the Lord had given him rest. 

7 For he said to Judah, "Let us build these cities and surround them with walls and towers, gates and bars. The land is still ours, because we have sought the Lord our God; we have sought Him, and He has given us rest on every side." So they built and prospered. (2 Ch 14:2; NASB). For even when we came into Macedonia our flesh had no rest, but we were afflicted on every side: conflicts without, fears within. But God, who comforts the depressed, comforted us by the coming of Titus; (2 Co 7:5; NASB). 

C. Rest is from "agitators"

1. Ex 23.11: but on the seventh year you shall let it rest and lie fallow, so that the needy of your people may eat; and whatever they leave the beast of the field may eat. 

2. Is 62.6: On your walls, O Jerusalem, I have appointed watchmen; All day and all night they will never keep silent. You who remind the Lord, take no rest for yourselves; And give Him no rest until He establishes And makes Jerusalem a praise in the earth. 

D. From pain, sorrow, harsh toil/work 

1. Ex 23.12 (31.15): Six days you are to do your work, but on the seventh day you shall cease … 

2. When the Lord has given you rest from your pain and turmoil and the hard service with which you were made to serve,  you will take up this taunt against the king of Babylon: [Is 14] 

3. This is the message which Jeremiah the prophet spoke to Baruch the son of Neriah, when he had written down these words in a book at Jeremiah's dictation, in the fourth year of Jehoiakim the son of Josiah, king of Judah, saying: "Thus says the Lord the God of Israel to you, O Baruch: 

'You said, "Ah, woe is me! For the Lord has added sorrow to my pain; I am weary with my groaning and have found no rest."' "Thus you are to say to him, 'Thus says the Lord, "Behold, what I have built I am about to tear down, and what I have planted I am about to uproot, that is, the whole land." 'But you, are you seeking great things for yourself? Do not seek them; for behold, I am going to bring disaster on all flesh,' declares the Lord, 'but I will give your life to you as booty in all the places where you may go.'" (Je 45:1; NASB). 

4. Hebrews 4:10 For the one who has entered His rest has himself also rested from his works, as God did from His 

E. From fear, and leads to security/safety 

1. When you cross the Jordan and live in the land which the Lord your God is giving you to inherit, and He gives you rest from all your enemies around you so that you live in security (Dt 12:10 NASB; cf 25.19) 

2. "Our root signifies not only absence of movement but being settled in a particular place (whether concrete or abstract) with overtones of finality, or (when speaking abstractly) of victory, salvation, etc…The martial use entails God's promise (Deut 12:10) and the fulfillment (Josh 21:44) to defeat Israel's enemies and give them rest (victory and security) in the land. 

II. Extended Aspects of "Rest" 


A. Has an important subjective/psychological aspect to it 

1. "And among those nations you shall find no rest, and there shall be no resting place for the sole of your foot; but there the Lord will give you a trembling heart, failing of eyes, and despair of soul." (Dt 28.65, NASB) 

2. I am not at ease, nor am I quiet; I have no rest; but trouble comes. (Job 3:26; NRSV). 

3. Thus says the Lord: Stand at the crossroads, and look, and ask for the ancient paths, where the good way lies; and walk in it, and find rest for your souls. (Je 6:16; NRSV). 

4. Now when I came to Troas for the gospel of Christ and when a door was opened for me in the Lord, 13 I had no rest for my spirit, not finding Titus my brother; but taking my leave of them, I went on to Macedonia. (2 Co 2:12; NASB). 

5. For even when we came into Macedonia our flesh had no rest, but we were afflicted on every side: conflicts without, fears within. But God, who comforts the depressed, comforted us by the coming of Titus; (2 Co 7:5; NASB).

B. For example, the "soothing aroma" is from our word 

1. "Soothing aroma": in the sacrificial law, this is a regular term for the smell produced by burning the sacrifices (cf. Lev 1:9; 2:2; 3:5, etc). "Soothing" (חחינ) sacrifices have a restful (חונ), soothing, pacifying effect on God. That God's anger at sin is appeased by sacrifice is the clear implication of this phrase.  

2. ניחח n.[m.] a quieting, soothing, tranquillizing — a soothing, tranquillizing, only in phr. ŏ ריח = soothing, tranquillizing odour of sacrifices acceptable to God [BDB] 

3. You have not bought any fragrant calamus for me, or lavished on me the fat of your sacrifices. But you have burdened me with your sins and wearied me with your offenses. (Is 43:24, NIV). 

C. Social and Community Elements: Removal of treacherous / Help for others, with even a Universal dimension 

1. When the Lord has given you rest from your pain and turmoil and the hard service with which you were made to serve, you will take up this taunt against the king of Babylon: How the oppressor has ceased! How his insolence has ceased! The Lord has broken the staff of the wicked, the scepter of rulers, that struck down the peoples in wrath with unceasing blows, that ruled the nations in anger with unrelenting persecution. The whole earth is at rest and quiet; they break forth into singing. (Is 14:3; NRSV). 

2. Indeed, He will speak to this people Through stammering lips and a foreign tongue, He who said to them, "Here is rest, give rest to the weary," And, "Here is repose," but they would not listen. (Is 28:11; NRSV). 

3. Their Redeemer is strong, the Lord of hosts is His name; He will vigorously plead their case, So that He may bring rest to the earth, But turmoil to the inhabitants of Babylon (Jer 50.34) 

4. "In the prophetic books of Isaiah (esp. 11:10; 14:3, 7; 28:12; 32:18; 63:14; 66:1), Jeremiah (esp. 6:16; 31:2; 50:34), Lamentations (1:3; 5:5) and Micah (2:10) many of the above ideas continue to appear, but new elements are present too. The loss of rest is a powerful symbol of God's judgment; rest is an element of the prophets' eschatological hope; it points towards šālôm ('peace'; cf. e.g. Is. 11:1–10; 32:17–18); and it is more closely connected with social justice, being the responsibility of the Israelites towards one another.

5. "The martial use entails God's promise (Deut 12:10) and the fulfillment (Josh 21:44) to defeat Israel's enemies and give them rest (victory and security) in the land. 

D. The positive notion of "Refreshment" is present too 

1. "anapausin: to become physically refreshed after ceasing activity or work—'rest, to rest.'…'let's go … to a quiet place and you can rest awhile' Mk 6.31…'you will find rest for yourselves' Mt 11.29…In the use of (these Greek words), the focus of meaning seems to be upon the restorative character of rest rather than mere cessation of activity ". 

2. 'Rest was built into the natural rhythms of life by the Creator, who rested on the seventh day of creation (Gen 2:1– 3). An important part of the meaning of rest is suggested by the mystery of divine rest: it draws a boundary around work and exertion and takes a legitimate delight in celebrating what has been accomplished, without an urge to keep working. The rest of God even includes an element that is crucial for humans who rest-- refreshment. Exodus 31:17 tells us that God not only rested on the seventh day but also "was refreshed" (RSV)… We can see in this weekly rest the satisfaction of both a physical need (the reason Ex 23:12 gives for the prescribed rest is that people and animals "may be refreshed") and a spiritual requirement to set time aside for the worship of God. Sabbath rest was buttressed by a system of festivals that constituted an important part of Hebrew religious life. ..Such rest reorients a person's values, taking attention off the workaday preoccupation with getting and spending and onto God and spiritual realities.. 

3. "While there is the sense that rest is a cessation of labor (Gen 2), the notion of rest is much richer than that. God's rest expresses the completion and goal of his purposes and the enjoyment of the perfection and harmony of creation." 

III. Specific Themes 

A. Promised by God 

1. And the Lord gave them rest on every side, according to all that He had sworn to their fathers, and no one of all their enemies stood before them; the Lord gave all their enemies into their hand. (Jos 21:44, NASB) 

2. Blessed be the Lord, who has given rest to His people Israel, according to all that He promised; not one word has failed of all His good promise, which He promised through Moses His servant. (1 Ki 8:56; NASB). 

B. Accomplished by the Presence of God (mostly in Tabernacle/Temple) 

1. Ex 33.14: "My presence will go with you, and I will give you rest" 

2. "Psalm 95:11, which is important to the author of Hebrews, belongs to this tradition. 'Rest' here is a tangible good (rather than a personal entering into God); so also in the closely related Psalm 81 (esp. Ps. 81:13–16). The psalm's oath therefore sums up the covenantal blessings promised to God's people – blessings of secure life in the land – which were bound up with God's presence among them. In its use of the perpetually present directive – 'today if you hear his voice' – long after the occupation of the land, the text seems to contain an element of promise. 

C. This "Presence" Motif also hearkens back to the Genesis/Garden Rest 

1. Hebrews 4:3 For we who have believed enter that rest, just as He has said, "As I swore in My wrath, They shall not enter My rest," although His works were finished from the foundation of the world. 

2. Hebrews 4:10 For the one who has entered His rest has himself also rested from his works, as God did from His 

3. "The Rest Tradition. A very important OT theme is Yahweh's gift of 'rest' to his people, from journeying or warfare, in the land of promise, Israel's 'resting place'. This theme constitutes a powerful affirmation of Yahweh's continuing faithfulness – as well as being associated with Israel's faithfulness – and is a summary of his good gifts to his people. In no way is the image one of blissful inactivity; rather it is one of unhampered constructive activity." 

D. And the Garden Rest is also linked to the Sabbath rest 

1. "Such rest reorients a person's values, taking attention off the workaday preoccupation with getting and spending and onto God and spiritual realities. In the Bible willingness to engage in such rest is nothing less than a covenant sign-"a perpetual covenant" and "a sign" between God and his people (Ex 31:16–17 RSV). Yet another part of the symbolism of sabbath rest was that it pictured release from the bondage of Israel in Egypt (Deut 5:15). Rest is a form of freedom-from work, from human striving and acquisitiveness, from worldly preoccupations…If willingness to rest is a sign of commitment to God, it is elsewhere viewed as a freedom from anxiety. Moses paints a picture of "the beloved of the Lord" as someone who "rests in safety" and "rests between [God's] shoulders" (Deut 33:12 NRSV). Here is a picture of what rest ultimately involves in the Bible—a relinquishing of human self—assertion and a trust in God. 

2. "The soteriological use forms around the theology of the sabbath. In Gen 2:2–3 šābat (cessation from labor) describes God's rest, but in Ex 20:11 nûah is used. Hence, man is not only to cease from his worldly pursuits (Ex 31:12–17; cf. Isa 58:13–14), but he is to enter into a state of victory/salvation rest (Josh 1:13; cf. Deut 25:19). It is only the presence and favor of God that makes this rest (as well as martial rest) possible (Ex 33:14; cf. Isa 14:3, 7)." 

E. And there is a "Big Sabbath" rest ahead… 

1. m. Tamid 7.4: "This was the singing which the levites used to sing in the Temple…On the Sabbath they sang A Psalm: A Song for the Sabbath Day (Ps92); a Psalm, a song for the time that is to come, for the day that shall be all Sabbath and rest in the life everlasting." 

2. "The understanding of rest is expanded in Hebrews by the use of Psalm 95 to include an eschatological sense. As noted earlier, Psalms 95 and 96 are a pair of royal enthronement psalms that speak of the future reign of Messiah over humanity and the earth…The promised rest in Hebrews is related to the Hebrew concept of שׁתב ("sabbath"). The sabbath has the following meanings in the Hebrew Scriptures: (a) God's rest on the seventh day of creation (Gen 2:2–3); (b) a day of the week in which to recall God's role as Emancipator in bringing Israel out of Egypt (Deut 5:15); (c) an ordinance giving workers a rest (Exod 23:12); and (d) a sign of the Mosaic Covenant (Exod 31:13). Yahweh intended that man share in the creation rest (i.e., sabbath), but Adam's fall occurred and the sabbath rest was forfeited. The way back to this rest is provided in the coming kingdom." 

IV. The Davidic Deliverer "As the ultimate Son of David, Jesus announces the awaited rest, thereby claiming to bring to fulfillment Yahweh's OT promise. Soteriologically, this amounts to a claim that the total salvation God promised his people is being realized through Jesus as Messiah. Christologically, in promising rest Jesus stands in the place reserved for Yahweh in the OT. Oppressive forces once again threaten to overcome the powerless among God's people; Jesus in response uses an OT expression for Yahweh's salvation, but makes the promise in his own name." 

V. Recap 

1. Rest means being in your God-designed place 

2. Rest means being through with any struggles needed to get there 

3. Rest means not worrying about outside attacks or threats—it involves security and safety 

4. Rest is not only a external state, but it is also an internal experience—close in nuance to English "peace" or "soothed" 

5. Rest is freedom from distraction and agitation, to be able to focus on creation/enjoyment of delight, beauty, and warmth 

6. Rest is designed to lead to refreshment of life—new energy, new joy, new eagerness to 'see what God has for us today' 

7. Community rest is designed to be for all people—not just biblical Israel. 

8. Community rest will involve removal of the treacherous and destructive 

9. Rest is designed to "reset" our values—when we are not 'fighting fires' we can see the Big Picture better 

10. Rest is now with us spiritually, and will be in the New Future— based on the presence of a rest-making and rest-giving God 

11. Rest is our response to his Nuah/Rest-making efforts against our enemies: a. Our legal guilt (justification) b. Our condemnation under the spiritual powers  c. The degenerative situation caused by our sinful behavior (redemption) d. Our sin, our helplessness 12. This nuah/rest fight was won by the One 'meek and lowly of heart' 13. Rest is something we are supposed to share with others… 14. …because our good-hearted God shared it with us.