Tuesday, September 8, 2015

The Last Great Bubble Is Finally Starting To Pop.......

The Last Great Bubble Is Finally Starting To Pop

The illusion of stock-market stability is fading, and the Last Great Bubble — faith in central banks — may be starting to pop.

Just as everyone is talking about the Fed raising rates in September and "lift off" finally occurring, the global growth and inflation story is dramatically reversing. It turns out quantitative easing did absolutely nothing for the economy, and it turns out that Europe's own version of QE simply isn't working to boost reflation hope.

For too long, market participants have been sucked into the idea that the S&P 500 is the money market. Lower for longer has now become an excuse for too long to buy U.S. markets and believe that risk does not exist when central banks "have our backs."

The narrative is on the verge of a significant change. At some point, we have to stop endlessly debating the question of "when" the Fed will raise rates. Instead, we must begin to question what is so wrong with the environment that has resulted in them not having raised rates yet. Unquestionably there are long-term structural forces at play which have been disinflationary, but the bigger issue is that the U.S. stock market turned from a discounting mechanism of the future to yet another failed vehicle for stimulus under the guise of the "wealth effect."

For the past five years, dominated by central bank actions, small caps relative to large caps are essentially nearing their lows. Why is this important? Because small caps are more sensitive to domestic growth and inflation prospects than multinational large caps. Yet, despite all of this domestic stimulus done by the Fed, price action says it simply hasn't worked.

A critical point in time has arrived to re-evaluate everything you think you knew about markets in the small sample of the last few years. 

As I have said, the magnitude of being right matters far more than the frequency. 

Many if not most are going to be shocked wide awake by what is coming.

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